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Weekend Soccer Predictions/ Picks Jan 23-24

Goals Predicted in Madrid
Only 1 soccer match in the English premier league this weekend and there's no value whatsoever in the Manchester UTD vs Hull betting markets so the primary focus will be Spanish soccer fixtures. There is of course the F.A cup for soccer tips but cups, especially the FA cup tend to be harder for betting predictions. In La Liga, there are 2 standout matches in terms of value betting opportunities and they are the Madrid derby where Atletico travel to Getafe and Zaragoza travel to Villarreal on Sunday night. Both look hot tips for goals despite the fact key man Diego Forlan probably faces a couple of weeks on the sidelines due to injury. Other decent betting prices are Valencia, who look overpriced @ 7/10 to grab yet another away win against struggling Tenerife. Valencia have been far better on the road this year than at home and are decent value bets even at a fixed odds on price. Sergio Canales, the new Spanish wonderkid who has been tipped on here a few times now as an anytime scorer bet or even to grab a brace, will be traveling to Gijon and is once again massively overpriced in the goalscorer betting, priced up at 11/4 in both Paddypower and Bet365 ...... Stay tuned for expert value betting soccer picks / tips

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Selection: Getafe vs Atletico

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: No Forlan but an in form Aguero, youngster Ibrahima with confidence flying after his first league goal last week and a "Fox in the box" type striker in soldado against a loose Atletico defense, makes a price of just under evens very appealing.

Confidence: 70-75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 19/20 Book: Exchanges

Selection: Villarreal vs Zaragoza

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: Zaragoza matches this season have been producing plenty of goals and with the firepower Villarreal have in attack, I can't see Zaragoza's defence holding out. They have a threat of their own with the likes of the newly signed Suazo and also Aguilar from set pieces.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.75pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Exchanges

Selection: WestBrom vs Newcastle

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: 2 teams meet again after a 2-2 draw last Monday night. That match could easily have been 4-4 and no reason why it shouldn't be more of the same with the likes of Andrew Carroll and Ishmael Miller pushing for starts,

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 1/1 Book: Exchanges

Selection: Tenerife vs Valencia

Bet: Score/win double - Valencia/Villa

Info: Valencia's away record this season is fantastic. They set up to play away from home with the pace of the attacking 4 massively potent on the counter. When Valencia win, Villa usually scores.

Confidence: 60% Stake: 3pts Odds: 6/4 Book: (PP)

Selection: Gijon vs Racing Santander

Bet: Sergio Canales anytime scorer (VOID - Non starter)

Info: This kid has only had a handful of starts in La Liga and has bagged a brace in 2 of those matches and 1 against Sevilla no less. He is a superb finisher and Racing will try to hit Gijon on the counter and Canales' pace could be key to get in behind.

Confidence: 50% Stake: 1.75pts Odds: 11/4 Book: (Bet365)

-0.75pts Sergio canales brace @ 22/1 (PP) (VOID - Non Starter)


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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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