Betting Symbols Guide

The symbols guide is as follows:
- * Decent/good value - more unlikely than likely

-*** Good value, hit or miss

- **** Top value bet, pretty good win exp%

- ***** likely to come in and appealing price

- ** way overpriced outside chance/longshot

A lot of(most) average punters get confused about value betting and some may think that tips posted on here should come in most of the time.

This is not the case at all. As mentioned throughout the site, my field is value betting and mathematical systems(which sometimes include trading/laying and include all sorts of calculations and bankroll management skills etc) that produce big profit over time. I look for prices that are too big, even if the pick only has a win exp% (IMO) of say 10%, I may take it if it's overpriced (eg. 12/1).

Basically every bet I post is a winner over time (IMO) so it doesn't make a difference whether or not it comes in on any given occasion. This means that if I backed these odds at the same win exp%(IMO) over a given period of times, that the overall returns of that number of bets would well outweigh the outlay. In short, it isn't 'gambling', its actually simple maths coupled with logic and my knowledge of my specialist markets.

I'm aware most people don't understand how this works so I've assembled a symbols guide(above) which will be used mainly for football bets to give people an idea of just how often I actually expect a particular tip posted to come in, and also an indication of how wrong the price is(how much value I see in it).

NOTE: If anyone ever says the word 'banker' to you to do with a football match, disregard it straight away. Manchester UTD at home to WBA for example is, contrary to popular opinion, far from a 'banker'. There is simply no such thing and I can assure you the bookies have games like these priced up to rip your pockets to shreds. The bigger the price, the more vulnerable the compiler/bookmaker/layer or average punter on the exchanges.

Note:There won't be many tips on this site that will have a win exp% of over 80%.

Mathematical example: Poli vs shaktar (4/5)

Remember that anything can happen in 1 game of football so take it over 100 matches in exactly the same circumstances and same price:

So if I placed £100 on a shaktar win @ 4/5 and I estimated that they would win this fixture(in these exact circumstances) 75% of times.

£100(stake) x 100(games) =£10,000(total stake)

Each win @ 4/5 would return £180

75 wins by £180(return) = £13,500

Therefore you are making a profit of £3,500 over 100 matches whatever happens on this particular night.

And so then just by placing the bet, you can say it's worth £3,500/100(bets) = £35 (per bet online) whether or not it wins or loses on this particular occasion, which brings me to a favourite quote of mine:"Find the value and the winners will look after themselves"

Of course, my estimations of the % of times they'd win could be off which is why I always allow myself a small % margin for error.

Now you'll no doubt get people saying silly things like "But it would be hundreds of years before they'd play this fixture that amount of times", so pay attention to the next line: It doesn't have to be this game or even this market, you just need 100 games @ 4/5 and with a 75% win exp. Therefore that £3,500 profit(give or take) could be yours in a few months. Of course 100 games is too small a sample to get a very accurate conclusion, 1000 would be a better figure to allow for the 'laws of probability'

Inceidentally, that bet lost (finished 0-0 with Shaktar missing 2 very good opportunities near the end) but it didn't change my opinion of the win exp%. Having watched the game, I thought I was spot on with my estimation.