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Premier League /European Football Picks Jan 16-17

Baptism Of Fire For Coyle Premier League side Bolton have got their man and a new style of football beckons for The Trotters and ironically, the type of football Coyle will try to bring to the Reebok is that of his first opponents, Arsenal. The value bet of that game looks to be the goals with both teams no doubt intent on attacking. Other English Premier League football fixtures include Stoke vs Liverpool where Stoke are a good value betting opportunity to take the scalp of the woeful reds after their disaster in the FA Cup midweek and the loss of Torres, Gerrard and Benayoun to injury. Not many other standout betting tips in the Premier league this week so the focus will turn to La Liga and the Bundesliga. La Liga, as per usual, throws up some nice looking betting opportunities with both Racing santander and Real Zaragoza hot tips for home wins. The standout fixtures in this weekend's football in La Liga are the third encounter in 10 days between Barca and Sevilla and in terms of football betting tips, Villarreal travel to Valencia in what looks a good pick for a goalfest. In the Bundesliga, another potential goalfest is in store with wolfsburg traveling to VFB, where I have my eye on Pogrebnyiak for an anytime scorer bet....Stay tuned for expert Premier league / European football value betting tips

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Selection: Racing santander vs Valladolid

Bet: Santander win (Asian Handicap -0.75)

Info: Racing Santander very high in confidence and in fabulous form with their new teenage star Sergio Canales on fire. Valladolid on the opposite end of the scale looking toothless just now and finding it hard to hit the back of the net.

Confidence: 70-75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 127/100 Book: Bet365

Selection: Real Zaragoza vs Xerez

Bet: Zaragoza win Asian Handicap(-0.75)

Info: Both teams in a poor run of form(the whole season in Xerez's case) but results have been deceptive in Zaragoza's case. With the fantastic signing of Suazo from Monterrey, they will be upbeat and if he takes part(and he is expected to), they could be in for a comfortable win.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 4pts Odds: 31-40 Book: Bet365

Selection: VFB vs Wolfsburg

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: When Wolfsburg are in town, there are usually goals. Both sides here will be all out attack and with the firepower of Dzeko, Grafite, Pogrebniak and the likes, it could be a goalfest.

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 7/10 Book: Bet365

Selection: Bolton vs Arsenal

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Coyle likes his teams to attack and that could be the self destruct button against Arsenal, especially on a small and tight pitch like the 1 at the reebok. Look out for Eduardo to strike, possibly more than once. Nasri should get plenty of shooting opportunity which he loves, Klasnic is on form and Davies has a good record vs the Gunners.

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Betfair

Selection: Valencia vs Villarreal

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: Villarreal really dangerous on the counter attack, as are Valencia but with Valencia being the home side and having to come forward, their defense will be exposed. Look for the attacking foursome of Valencia though who are all back fit now to do some damage of their own. 4-4 anyone?

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Betfair


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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