Copa Del Rey/ Carling Cup Betting picks 5-7 Jan

It's Tevez Again! Carling Cup semi finals kick off this football midweek as the Manchester Derby takes centre stage. A certain Carlos Tevez unhappy with the reception he got on his premier league return to old Trafford is out to punish his former club in a fixture that looks to be a good value price for goals. In the English Premier League, Arsenal entertain Bolton and Stoke play host to Fulham in what looks a dire fixture for anyone interested in backing the unders. The other Carling cup semi features Blackburn and Villa and I'm still waiting on the referee as there could be war in that football fixture and the card index betting an option. Spanish football betting tips this midweek will include the Copa Del Rey tips where Barca play hosts to an understrength Sevilla at good value of 1/2 and Villarreal travel to Celta in a potentially exciting encounter.... stay tuned for expert value midweek football betting tips/ picks


CARLING CUP TIES CALLED OFF

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Selection: Barca vs Sevilla

Bet: Score/ win double - Ibrahimovic/Barca VOID - Non starter

Info: Sevilla only half the side without Kanoute and Fabiano. Ibrahimovic scoring for fun at the moment.

Confidence: 55-60% Stake: 2.25pts Odds: 8/5 Book: Bluesq

Selection: Arsenal vs Bolton

Bet: Score/ win double - Eduardo/arsenal VOID - Match Postponed

Info: Eduardo in scoring form. Bolton managerless for now. Almost flawless home record for the 'Gooners'.

Confidence: 55% Stake: 2.25pts Odds: 5/4 Book: Bluesq

Selection: Celta vs Villarreal

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Villarreal playing a very attacking brand of football at the moment and top strikers in their ranks

Confidence: 65-70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 21/20 Book: Bet365

Selection: Huelva vs Atletico

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Give me evens on an over 2.5 in any Atletico game and I'll bite your hand off

Confidence: 65-70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 21/20 Book: Bet365

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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