Premier League /European Football Picks Dec 5-8

Goals in Spain
A tasty looking fixure list in La Liga this weekend as the spanish football season starts to take shape, with Real Madrid and a returning Ronaldo at home to a struggling Almeria side. Barcelona travel to Deportivo in what could prove a very tough encounter, Atletico travel to Xerez and IMO are a great price @ odds of 4/5 to take the 3 points, with a certain Aguero in sparkling form. A good looking fixture though is a Sevilla team that seem to be back to their old attacking ways against a Valladolid side that have been producing goalfests this Spanish football season. In Germany, in the Bundesliga, Bayen munich look to try and get their season going after success last week, at home to Monchengladbach. In the English Premiership soccer betting, the standout fixtures are Westham vs UTD and Chelsea travel to a confident Man City, both after recent 3-0 hammerings of Arsenal. I predict the Premier League value bet of this weekend's football though has to be a score/win double pick on Eduardo (if he starts) and Arsenal, at home to Stoke .... Stay tuned for free expert premiership /European football value picks

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Selection: Sevilla vs Valladolid

Bet: Goal line over 2.75

Info: Games involving Valladolid this year have more often than not been high scoring affairs and with the new attacking system of Sevilla's Manolo Jimenez this season and Luis Fabiano on fire, more of the same should be in the offing come saturday night

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1.86 Book: Ladbrokes

Selection: Arsenal vs Stoke

Bet: Score/Win double - Eduardo/Arsenal (VOID - NON RUNNER)

Info: Bound to be a plethora of chances for the fabulous Croatian Finisher. It's hard to see Stoke coming away from the Emirates with anything but an empty bag

Confidence: 65-70% Stake: 3pts Odds: 13/8 Book: Betfred

Selection: Xerez vs Atletico

Bet: Atletico win

Info: Confidence coming back to Atletico, fresh off a mauling of Espanyol with Kun Aguero on fire. Xerez have failed to even score in all but 3 of their league games

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Ladbrokes

Selection: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach

Bet: Score/win double - Bayern/ Muller

Info: New young starlet has been one of the only shining lights of Bayern's season so far and could continue his scoring streak as Bayern try to build on their momentum

Confidence: 45-50% Stake: 2pts Odds: 23/10 Book: Bluesq

Selection: La Liga Double

Bet: Real Madrid win(-1) Handicap vs almeria/ Barcelona win vs Deportivo

Info: Ronaldo back and raring for goals, Almeria very lightweight up top - Never replace Negredo. Should be a comfortable win for madrid whereas Barca will face a tough test but with their best 11 all fresh and fit, they should have enough

Confidence: 65% Stake: 2.5pts Odds: 8/5 Book: (general)

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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