La Liga / FA Cup Picks/ Tips 2-3 Jan

New Year, New start For Atletico
La Liga is back this weekend and most of Nic's Picks football betting tips will focus on that as there's a break in Premier League football due to the FA Cup third round. As a full fixture list of Primera liga spanish football kicks off, it's a new beginning for Sanchez Flores and his Atletico side after a poor first half of the season and they've a fabulous chance to start with a bang against a Sevilla side minus Fabiano and Kanoute and are good value betting picks @ 13/8 to take 3 home points. Another tasty looking fixture in terms of a hot tip for goals is Getafe vs Valladolid. On paper, you may not think but if they continue playing as they have this year so far, we could be in for a treat, with Soldado looking for his third hattrick of the season. Elsewhere in La Liga, Barca entertain Villarreal and Deportivo travel to Zaragoza and are decent tips to take at least a point. FA Cup round 3 kicks off in England this week and all the big boys are in. Standout fixtures in terms of value picks are Chelsea home to Watford, where Sturridge is best price 6/4 to hit the net and the London Derby where Arsenal travel to Westham .... stay tuned for Spanish La Liga football/ FA cup expert value picks/ betting tips

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Selection: Atletico vs Sevilla

Bet: Atletico win

Info: Aguero set to return for Atletico and the visitors will be without their 2 main strikers in Fabiano(injured) and Kanoute(African Nations)

Confidence: 55-60% Stake: 2.5pts Odds: 8/5 Book:

Selection: Getafe vs Valladolid

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Both teams this season have been involved in goal filled games more often than not. Soldado in superb form for Getafe.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.75pts Odds: 17/20 Book:

Selection: Getafe vs Valladolid

Bet: Soldado anytime scorer

Info: As mentioned, in fine form and likely to get chances

Confidence: 55-60% Stake: 2.25pts Odds: 5/4 Book:

-1pt Soldado to score a brace @ 7/1 (Bluesq )

Selection: Zaragoza vs Deportivo

Bet: Deportivo win A/H(+.25)

Info: Depor very hard to break down and should be able to punish a loose Zaragoza on the counter

Confidence: 70% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1.6 Book:

Selection: Westham vs Arsenal

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: Likely to be an open game with changes expected in the Arsenal lineup. This fixture finished 2-2 in the league a few weeks back.

Confidence: 70-75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1.86 Book:

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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