Dog Value? Some crazy prices floating around this International football World Cup make or break week as the World cup playoffs draw closer. The favourites seem well underpriced with the underdogs, overpriced. Arshavin's Russia, France, Portugal and Uruguay are all big favourites to progress to the world cup finals but the smart money may be in betting on the outside picks, where there is big value to be had. The Republic of Ireland are not a great football side right now, but there is heart in abundance, something the French are severlely lacking in and Trapattoni has got them very organised with every player knowing his job, and even though the French are rightly favourites, 3/1 on the exchanges for Ireland to qualify for the World cup finals is the bet for me. The standout matchup in terms of value though is undoubtedly the Portugal vs Bosnia playoffs tie. Portugal are likely to play most of the 2 legs without key man Ronaldo and they really lack top quality finishers(as they have done for years) and this is where Bosnia could punish them. With a front trio of Dzeko, Ibisevic and playmaker Misimovic to supply them, what Portugal would give for firepower like that. I really do make this tie a 50/50 coinflip yet you can still get 3/1 on Bosnia reaching the World Cup finals in South Africa.

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Symbols Guide

Selection: Bosnia vs Portugal

Bet: Bosnia to qualify

Info: Ronaldo struggling, Portugal lacking cutting edge. Front trio for Bosnia a real threat albeit lacking in solidity at the back. Could be a high scoring 2 legs and anyone could progress

Confidence: 50% Stake: 2.5pts Odds: 3/1 Book: Betfair

Selection: France vs Ireland

Bet: Ireland to qualify

Info: France only shades of the team they used to be. Atmosphere on Saturday at Croke Park may be too hot for them to handle and a lead for the Irish, to bring to the UNintimidating Park De France may be something they could hang onto.

Confidence: 35-40% Stake: 2pts Odds: 3/1 Book: Betfair

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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