Premiership/ European Football Picks Nov 7th-8th

Aguero Key In Madrid Some big matches around Europe this weekend, notably the massive Madrid derby where Aguero is fresh off a champions league brace against Chelsea and is desperate to keep it going. In the English Premiership betting, Chelsea take on Man UTD in a battle for top spot and Bayern Munich take on Schalke in a pivotal Bundesliga clash. Elsewhere, in Spain, Valencia take on Zaragoza in a potential goalfest. In Germany, Wolfsburg travel to Hoffenheim in another match likely to produce goals and in the premiership Liverpool try and put their woes behind them with a home tie against Birmingham....Stay tuned for Premiership/European football expert value picks

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Selection: Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg

Bet: Goal line over 2.75

Info: Wolfsburg only know 1 way as they proved on Wednesday night against Besiktas, and with Grafite possibly returning to the starting lineup, that could spell trouble for Hoffenheim, although with the space they leave at the back, Ibisevic could thrive for Hoffenheim

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.75 Odds: 4/5 Book: Ladbrokes

Selection: Atletico vs Madrid

Bet: Aguero anytime scorer

Info: Confidence high after a champions league double against Chelsea and will be desperate to add to his tally against their biggest rivals and impress the new manager and any watching potential buyers even further

Confidence: 55% Stake: 2.25 Odds: 11/4 Book:Bluesq
-0.75pts Aguero to score a brace @ 22/1 (Bluesq)
-0.5pts Aguero to score a hat-trick @ 125/1 (Bluesq)

Selection: Valencia vs Zaragoza

Bet: Goal line over 2.75

Info: Potential goal fest at the Mestalla with the WBA of last years premiership in town. David Villa could thrive in what's likely to be a very open attacking game of football. Both teams are averageing almost 3 goals a game

Confidence: 75-80% Stake: 4.5 Odds: 1.76 Book: Betdaq

Selection: Valencia vs Zaragoza

Bet: Score /win double - Villa/Valencia

Info: As mentioned above, likely to be wide open with a lot of chances. I'd fancy Villa for a brace in this game

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.5 Odds: 13/10 Book: PaddyPower

Selection: Chelsea vs Man UTD

Bet: Chelsea win

Info: Chelsea flying and looking dangerous from all over the place. UTD patchy and with injury problems. Rooney's mind is on his personal life with a new baby in the house

Confidence: 65-70% Stake: 3.75 Odds: 11/10 Book: Ladbrokes

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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