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Premier league /European Football Picks Nov 28/29


Massive Derby Weekend "El Gran clasico" takes centre stage this soccer betting weekend in the spanish football league and it's just in time to see a returning Cristiano Ronaldo to the Madrid starting line up as Spain's big 2 go head to head once again. In The English Premier League, an annual massive premiership game is of a lot less significance this season as Liverpool travel to Everton in what is now a mid table battle, after some would argue Benitez has taken Liverpool to an all time low. A much more important game sees the big London derby as Premiership favourites Chelsea travel across London to a fortress Emirates stadium....


FREE premiership/ Spanish football value picks:
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Selection: Portsmouth vs Man Utd

Bet: Man UTD corner handicap (-2)

Info: UTD's corner count on the road this year is impressive and it's not the first time William Hill have made a gaping line error this year. In fact W/H are trying out a new thing where they offer alternative lines and I hope to exploit it when it's in trial. UTD's dominance of posession should see them overcome a 2 corner deficit. Pompey will be disorganised with a new man only after coming in

Confidence: 70% Stake:4pts Odds: 17/20 Book:
Hills

Selection: Valencia vs Mallorca

Bet: Score/win double - Villa/Valencia

Info: Valencia on form, Villa scoring for fun and Mallorca without their top striker

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 11/8 Book: Bluesq

Selection: Sevilla vs Malaga


Bet: Score/win double - Fabiano/Sevilla

Info: There's a standout top 4 in spain now and sevilla are in that group. Riding high in confidence, should dispatch a seriously struggling and toothless Malaga side with Fabiano likely to get on the sheet once more

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 5/4 Book: Bluesq

Man City vs Hull

Bet: Score/win double - Adebayor/City

Info: Hull with a slight resurgence in form of late but with city back to almost full strength this week, off the back of a decent performance against Liverpool and desperate for a win, hull win find it difficult. Adebayor to continue the run after scoring at anfield

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 7/5 Book: Betfred

Villa vs spurs

Bet: Villa corner handcap(-1)

Info: Usually a team that wins a lot of corners, villa have got it going again this year in that respect with their front players starting to hit form. Spurs lack pace to get in behind.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 19/20 Book: Bet365

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.