Premier league /European Football Picks Nov 28/29

Massive Derby Weekend "El Gran clasico" takes centre stage this soccer betting weekend in the spanish football league and it's just in time to see a returning Cristiano Ronaldo to the Madrid starting line up as Spain's big 2 go head to head once again. In The English Premier League, an annual massive premiership game is of a lot less significance this season as Liverpool travel to Everton in what is now a mid table battle, after some would argue Benitez has taken Liverpool to an all time low. A much more important game sees the big London derby as Premiership favourites Chelsea travel across London to a fortress Emirates stadium....

FREE premiership/ Spanish football value picks:
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Selection: Portsmouth vs Man Utd

Bet: Man UTD corner handicap (-2)

Info: UTD's corner count on the road this year is impressive and it's not the first time William Hill have made a gaping line error this year. In fact W/H are trying out a new thing where they offer alternative lines and I hope to exploit it when it's in trial. UTD's dominance of posession should see them overcome a 2 corner deficit. Pompey will be disorganised with a new man only after coming in

Confidence: 70% Stake:4pts Odds: 17/20 Book:

Selection: Valencia vs Mallorca

Bet: Score/win double - Villa/Valencia

Info: Valencia on form, Villa scoring for fun and Mallorca without their top striker

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 11/8 Book: Bluesq

Selection: Sevilla vs Malaga

Bet: Score/win double - Fabiano/Sevilla

Info: There's a standout top 4 in spain now and sevilla are in that group. Riding high in confidence, should dispatch a seriously struggling and toothless Malaga side with Fabiano likely to get on the sheet once more

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 5/4 Book: Bluesq

Man City vs Hull

Bet: Score/win double - Adebayor/City

Info: Hull with a slight resurgence in form of late but with city back to almost full strength this week, off the back of a decent performance against Liverpool and desperate for a win, hull win find it difficult. Adebayor to continue the run after scoring at anfield

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3.25pts Odds: 7/5 Book: Betfred

Villa vs spurs

Bet: Villa corner handcap(-1)

Info: Usually a team that wins a lot of corners, villa have got it going again this year in that respect with their front players starting to hit form. Spurs lack pace to get in behind.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 19/20 Book: Bet365
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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