Midweek Football Dec 1st-3rd

Not To Be Sniffed At
The Carling Cup takes centre stage in this midweek's football but despite what the big boys may say, it's still a soccer competition they all want to win. The 1/4 final lineup would back up that statement and maybe a team that would like to win the cup competition more than the others is big spending Manchester City. Boss Hughes knows he is under pressure to deliver success quickly to his newly assembled England Premier League side and they could be the value picks to go all the way in this year's Carling Cup and first in their way is an Arsenal team that looks like will provide a mouth watering clash. Elsewhere in the midweek football schedule, Barcelona travel to Xerez in the Spanish Football league revelling in their defeat of bitter rivals Real Madrid on Sunday night and the Europa League kicks back into action over wednesday and Thursday, albeit with a lot of the groups already more or less decided... click link for midweek football value betting picks...

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Selection: Portsmouth vs Villa

Bet: Corners under 12

Info: Both teams will have a changed lineup hence the line of 12 is wrong and more often than not will hit the under in these circumstances tonight, thus making evens a good price

Confidence: 65-70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 1/1 Book: Bet365

Selection: Man city vs Arsenal

Bet: Arsenal to qualify

Info: There may be value with City to win the competition as mentioned but after seeing the ridiculous price of 7/4 being offered on arsenal to progress by any means in what is a close to 50/50 tie, I'll be backing them. Likely to start with a strong team with the likes of walcott, Vela and Rosicky leading the line

Confidence: 50% Stake: 2.75pts Odds: 7/4 Book: PaddyPower

Selection: Man city vs Arsenal

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Emphasis will be largely on attack from both sides and with the attacking and creative talent on show,chances and more than likely, goals, are in the offing

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Sky Bet

Selection: Xerez vs Barcelona

Bet: Barcelona win(-1) handicap

Info: Fresh off the back of a win vs their biggest rivals, and with a champions league spot all but secure for the knockout stages and a full team back from injury, expect a show of football vs Xerex

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4.5pts Odds: 8/11 Book: Betfred

Selection: FC Twente vs Fenerbache

Bet: Twente win

Info: Nic's Picks antepost tips for an outside shot at the Europa league look a good price to get the win they need to secure a place in the knockout stages against an already qualified Fenerbache

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 2.5pts Odds: 6/5 Book: Betfair

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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