PGA TOUR: GOLF MATCH BETTING

Posted by Bryan N

PGA TOUR: GOLF MATCH BETTING

Up to £25 in free bets @ paddypower.com

The Tour championship Match Betting:

With the premium very much on accuracy and patience at East Lake golf course, there are a few stand out match bets this week:

-3.75pts Ernie Els win vs Angel Cabrera @ 4/5 - The Big Easy has a good record here and Cabrera is wild off the tee and could find himself in trouble
Book: Betfred

-3.25pts Toms win vs Na @ 9/10 - Experience, patience and Accuracy are Tom's forte. The young kevin Na could find himself getting very impatient around East Lake
Book: expekt

BMW Championships
3pts Geoff Ogilvy win vs Camillo Villegas @ 10/11 - Villegas is struggling of late. I think he has cycling on his mind more than golf. He also has a wrist problem. Ogilvy on the other hand is finishing the season the way he started it.
Book:

-1.25pts Jim Fuyrk win vs tiger Woods @ 10/3 - What?!!! Yes, you heard right. Both have nearly identical recent records at Cog Hill and with the recent restructuring suiting Furyk's game rather than Woods, that price is the definition of 'value'
Book: Extrabet

Mercedes Benz Championships
-3pts Thomas Levet win vs Alvaro Quiros @ 22/23 - Accuracy is a premium this week and this is a mismatch in terms of that attribute. Quiros was absolutely awful up in switzerland.
Book: WBX

-3pts Jeev Milkha Singh win vs Gonzalo fdez Castano @ 10/11 - Gonzalo has been off the scene for a bit and if he's rusty off the tee, he'll find himself in trouble on this course. Singh is starting to come into form again and will be looking to put the disappointment of missing out on the Presidents cup team, behind him
Book:

August Golf Match Betting

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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