The Barclays
-3pts Steve Marino win vs John rollins @ 8/11 - Marino coming into some form and Rollins likely to be facing burnout after the exploits of the last few weeks
Book: (extrabet)

-2.75pts Phil mickelson win vs Sergio Garcia @ 18/19 - Mickelson is a member here so will hold the edge over a sulking Garcia after yet another blown winning position for the spaniard last week at the Wyndham. Garcia could also struggle on these greens.

-4pts Scott Mc Carron win vs Chris Riley @ 10/11- Riley looked a broken man at the back of last week's tournament. He seemed to totally lose his ability to drive and on this course you need to hit it longer than he was or you're going home early. McCarron on the other hand is coming into some nice form.
Book: (extrabet)

Johnnie walker Championship
3.5pts Damien McGrane win vs Robert Jan Derksen @ 10/11 - McGrane has been getting progressively better over the past few weeks and is a streaky player, could feature in the title race here

KLM Open and Wyndham Championship match betting

-3pts Kevin sutherland win vs Kevin Streeleman @ 10/11

Info: Sutherland is a dark horse for this tournament, good performance last week and tends to play well towards the back of the season

-3pts John bickerton win vs J.M Olazabal @ 28/29

Olazabal not playing much golf this season and Bickerton who found some form last time out, has a good record on the kennemer course
Book: VOID

-2.5pts double
Levet win vs Alex Noren/ Maybin win vs Henningsson @ 9/5 (coral) Noren is out of form this year and Henningsson is in the clouds after a win. Both can be erratic off the tee and if they are on this course, it's bye bye. Maybin and Levet on the other hand can smell victory and their games revolve around accuracy - the key to Kennemer course

-3pts Jonathon Byrd win vs Scott Mc Carron @ 5/6 (bet365) Byrd is a dark horse for this tournament with the game to suit the course. McCarron did well last week and had a second here last year but his game still isn't near back to the level it once was

-2.5pts Soren Kjeldsen win vs Soren Hansen @ 1/1(sporting bet) Heard from a fellow punter that Hansen has just been hit with a tax evasion charge therefore his mind may be elsewhere. This course could suit under the radar Kjeldsen.
Added @ 13:45BST on 13th August 09

-2.5pts Jerry kelly win vs Y.E Yang @ 13/15 paddypower betting Yang very inexperienced at this level. Kelly on top of his form and full of confidence

-2.5pts Alvaro Quiros win vs andres Romero @ 20/23(extrabet) 2 erratic and similar style players but in terms of form, right at the opposite ends of the scale

-2.5pts Woody austin win vs KJ choi @ 10/11 () Choi in no form at all in 2009

-2.5pts Allenby win vs Glover @ 4/5 (sporting bet) Allenby playing superb golf and loves the course

-2.5pts Rory sabbitini win vs Kevin sutherland @ 20-23(extrabet)Sutherland off the radar the last while, no real form in 2009

-2.5pts Nick Watney win vs Adam Scott @ 4/5(betfred) Scott in total transitional period, could struggle big time on this course

Bridgestone Invitational and Reno Tahoe Open Tournament Match Betting
Free Picks:

Bridgestone Invitational:
-3pts Davis Love III win vs Soren Hansen @ 1/1 (bet365) Soren doesn't generally tend to do well over in the states due to the pace of the greens and will find himself in trouble if he hits any bad drives which he tends to do sometimes. Big hitting Davis Love has the sense to play his way around a course like this one.

-3pts Kenny Perry win vs Padraic Harraington @ 10/11(bet365) If Padraic continues driving like he has, he could find himself down near the bottom of the leaderboard on this course. Perry, although with personal problems will be glad of the break and has the perfect game for Firestone - long and accurate off the tee with big high iron shots.

-2.5pts Nick Watney win vs Brian Gay @ 10/11(bet365,bluesquare)Gay will struggle to get near the pins on this course as it is vey long and greens surrounded by bunkers with tough pin positions. Being so short off the tee means gay will be playing long irons in most holes

Reno tahoe Open Tournament Match Bets:
-2.5pts Mark wilson win vs Aaron Baddeley @ 10/11 (stanjames,bet365) Baddeley out of sorts this season with very poor driving,expect Wilson to challenge for victory

-3.5pts John rollins win vs Steve Flesch @ 10/11(stanjames, betfred) Rollins to contend this wek, Flesh seriously out of sorts last few weeks

-3pts Harrizon Frazer win vs Michael allen @ 5/6(bluesquare)Frazer great record on this course and off the back of good performance last week, Allen also a decent record but may be suffering from burnout

-3pts Vaugn Taylor win Francesco Molinari @ 5/6(bluesquare) Taylor - 2 stars at montreux, 2 wins, need I say more?

Last updated @ 22:15 5th August 2009

Tags: Reno Tahoe Open, Bridgestone invitational, Tournament match betting, golf match betting
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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