Nicspicks is an independant website run entirely by myself which provides free VALUE picks, mainly in golf and football. The tips are all about value in the prices, NOT fast profit and are in no way guaranteed to come in on any given occasion so please bet within your means, manage your bankroll well, have patience and you should see the profits come in with time.

Successful value betting is all about maths, probability, good bankroll management and systematic approach rather than backing "winners", and if you know your markets (you should try to focus on a few markets you can excel in) really well and are competent in the mathematical side of things, there's no reason why you shouldn't be profitable long term.

Profitable betting is about finding odds that are higher than your estimation of the "Fair odds". To do this you must understand odds and probabilities. A common mistake people make is thinking that a short priced or odds on pick can't be a "value bet". This is not the case. A value bet can be any price at all, once the price quoted is bigger than what it should be. Bottom line is betting for value is the ONLY way of guaranteeing long term profit in fixed odds betting. IE: If you are getting value in every bet you make, betting becomes investing in probabilities rather than gambling. Click here for a mathematical example and more on value betting.

All tips on Nicspicks are the opinion of myself and noone else unless specified.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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