Austrian Open: Joost on the loose at Gut Altentann


Joost Luiten has found form again and looks the best of the market leaders in Austria

Gut Altentann is the name, the Austrian Open is the game, as the prestigious tournament returns to the DP World Tour calendar. US2.75 million is up for grabs along with 3,500 Race to Dubai points for the winner.

Course history and event form are out the window as Gut Altentann hosts for the first time in a long time. The Austrian Open is the third event of the European Swing.

A quick bit of course profiling though, and with the track being designed by the man himself, Jack Niclaus, I've come up with a solution to this week's conundrum.

Scoring should be low on a short, tightish, mainly parklands track measuring under 7,000 yards to a par 70. Emphasis will be on approach shots as with all Jack Nicklaus designs and expect more than a few holes to favour the left to right shot shape.

Austrian Open: Top of the market

Rasmus Neergaard Petersen 16/1 has been firmly on my radar lately and he obviously is on the bookmaker's radar too as he opened Austrian Open favourite. The Dane was averaging 8th in his last five events across the PGA and DP World Tours before a MC at the PGA Championship. 

He seemed to get over that quickly though as he qualified for the US Open. The former Oklahoma State man finished 11-under to top the US Open qualifier at Bent Tree Golf Club in Dallas.

Jordan Smith 16/1 has since caught up with him at the top of the betting while the underachieving Haotong Li 22/1 takes up his usual spot in the market at around third in the Austrian Open betting.

Matthew Jordan 28/1 is another in the top tier of the market who looks forever underpriced while Keita Najajima 33/1 is out of form recently.

Nic's picks for the Austrian Open


There is one absolute standout in tier 1 of the Austrian Open market and that's Joost Luiten 25/1 who has bounced around from 25s to 33s since the market opened. The Dutchman is back in form after a while in the abyss. 3-14-mc-5-16 is his recent formline and this course layout looks a great fit for an accurate ball striker who excels with his irons and GIR stats. Luiten is 12th in driving accuracy, 6th in greens in regulation and he is in the top 10 in stroke average for the season. Add in a baby fade and 25s looks a great price.

From the top to the bottom and I can't believe quotes of 100/1 and higher on Luiten's Dutch compatriot Darius van Driel. This is a former DP World Tour winner, who won in Kenya against a similar field last year, and tends to have spurts of top form or come out of nowhere. Van Driel is a two time Challenge Tour winner and has strong form in this part of Europe. Given he was one of the three men in the Soudal Open playoff I fully expect van Driel to be in the mix again barring a bad draw or something silly.....

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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