CJ Cup Byron Nelson preview and picks

Posted by Bryan N

CJ Cup Byron Nelson preview and picks

Jake Knapp has all the attributes to go well around TPC Craig Ranch

The fifth edition of the Byron Nelson from TPC Craig Ranch begins the lead-up to the second major of the season. The PGA Championship kicks off from Quail Hollow in just a couple of weeks and qualifying points and positions are up for grabs here in Texas.

What we are looking for at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is an aggressive style of player high up in the ball striking stats who owns plenty of power. Defending champ Taylor Pendrith fits that profile to a 'tee'! Total birdies are the theme on a low scoring track. We have seen 60 shot here before by Sul Yeung Noh and Seb Munoz and the winning score is usually in the mid twenties under par.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson market

There is $10m up for grabs at the Byron Nelson and the winner will receive 500 FedEx Cup points. Leading the market is adopted Texan Scottie Scheffler (sub 3/1) and the 'Scheff' remarkably is yet to win in 2025. This only serves to inflate the prices of other protagonists. Jordan Spieth is the other big name in the field, available at around 16/1. Sam Burns has been busy bringing up a newborn but is attracting attention this week at 25/1.

Nic's top tips for the Byron Nelson

Join me on Nicspicks Patreon platform to access all my six picks (plus two submarket tips) for this week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and receive my DP World and PGA Tour picks direct to your inbox every week.

Sungjae Im 20/1 ew is rounding into form at the right time and he has gained some length, currently ranking 22nd in strokes gained off the tee. As ever Im excels in the short game department leading to a ranking of 14th in 'par breakers' and 10th in 'total birdies'. The Korean ranks 12th in 'par 5 birdie or better' leaders. He debuts at the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch off the back of a top five at the Masters followed by a t11 at the RBC Heritage.

Jake Knapp 50/1 ew ticks all the right boxes in terms of player profiling for TPC Craig Ranch. The big hitter ranks third in par five performance and right now he is 10/10 in my course fit model for putting. Knapp is also third in 'total birdies' and he's been simmering nicely form wise this season. Another win is just around the corner for the man who recorded a top 10 finish at Craig Ranch on debut in 2024...

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips