Genesis Scottish Open - Can Min Woo Win his 2nd Scottish Title?

The conditions at the Renaissance Club will dicate the scoring ahead of the Open Championship test

It was a bit of a damp squib for us across the tours last week and this week the two main tours collide with the Genesis Scottish Open the big one over this side of the pond. The Scottish Open will be the warm-up for the Open Championship at Royal Troon. 

One big omission from the market is Scottie Scheffler and he'll be giving the Open Championship field an advantage by not honing his game on the links this week. Rory McIlroy leads the market at 15/2. Rory made a smash-and-grab here nicking the title from Robert MacIntrye in 2023. Xander Schauffele - winner in 2022 here, Ludvig Aberg, and Viktor Hovland take up the next four sports, then comes Tommy Fleetwood, a live home hope at 22/1.

Course and Player Profiling

The Renaissaince Club is one of the easier links on the rotation but if it blows and or conditions are bad it can be a real test. Initially fairways were wide and the fescues were not too thick. Edoardo Molinari famously described it as a bomb and putt contest. In recent years, the rough has been grown higher and pinched in. The landing areas at Renaissance Club are wider than your average links and trouble might not be in such high volume. The greens are undulating and tend to slope down into the greenside pot bunkering so there's a premium on iron play and distance control. Total Driving will now come into play.

We can see the variance in scoring depending on the conditions:

2023 Rory McIlroy -15
2022 Xander Schauffele -7
2021 Min Woo Lee  -18
2020 Aaron Rai -11
2019 Bernd Wiesberger -22

Key Metrics and Premiums

  • Wind play
  • Total Driving
  • Mid iron approaches
  • Distance control
  • Bunker play
  • Scrambling

Nic's Picks for the Scottish Open (all picks via mailing list)

Min Woo Lee 30/1 is the obvious choice here with a high course fit and being a previous winner. His last 6 events after some injury trouble have resulted in top 30 finishes, the highest of those last week when second at the Rocket Mortgage. Three of those finishes were in majors. The Aussie has already demonstrated he has the skills needed to win on the links and I'll have a firm eye (and a few quid) on him over the next couple of weeks.

Corey Conners 45/1 is also a man I'm on over the next couple of weeks. The two-time Texas Open winner is one of the strongest wind players and ball strikers on tour. Strangely enough, he's also finished inside the top 30 in his last 6 events with a T9 at the US Open and a sixth in Canada his best results. Corey owns 3 Masters tournament top 10s and he finished in the top 20 of the Genesis Scottish Open last year........

Note: Join my 2024 Nicspicks Mailing List  to receive all my weekly PGA Tour and DP World Tour picks by email every week.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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