The Memorial Tournament 2024 - Conners Set to Rise at Memorial

Canadian Conners is peaking at the right time

A major venue in waiting, the House That Jack Built will see a major like field play this week. Jack's Place is one of the longest running and best venues on the PGA tour and it usually separates the wheat from the chaff. Muirfield Village hosts the 2nd last Signature Event of the season. The field consists of last year's top 50 in the FedEx Cup, this seasons current top 10 not already exempt, the five best players in the points list between now and the last Signature Event, pga tour winners and invites. It's inevitable the field is led by Scottie Scheffler at 4/1 and he's now free from any handcuffing in his personal life and the Scheff enjoys it here. 

Emphasis is on a particular player so let's take a look at the profile we want at the Memorial: Total driving and high approaches with strong proximity with the irons is the brief. Muirfield Village is a pure second shot course but you must find the fairways on what are generous landing areas. Collin Morikawa and Hideki atMsuyama have given a masterclass here in the past while Patrick Cantlay also  loves the set up. Par 5s are key at Muirfield Village. Greens slope from back to front and they are some of the fastest on tour. Key on the track is to not short side yourself or you're not getting up and down.

There are reasons to oppose the big three in the market, whileViktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa - both course winners with the perfect Muirfield Village profile - really draw my attention for the next two weeks. Both prices look tempting but I'm going to go further down the market, seeking predominantly top 10 value. 

Course and Player Profiling for Muirfield Village

Muirfield Village is a championship track playing to a Par 72, around 7,400 yards. Known as the primary second shot track on tour, the general theme around Muirfield Village is to drive the ball well and most importantly be accurate on approach, finding the right parts of the greens. Par five performance is also key. Experience and course management is a big advantage as you can't just rip it around here. The likes of Bryson and Cam Champ have come unstuck doing this. Fairway bunkering is also penal and elevation changes are a big theme.

Key Metrics

  • Par 5 performance 
  • Long iron approaches
  • Distance control
  • Lag putting
  • Total Driving
  • SG: approach
  • Holing out

Nic's Picks for the Memorial Tournament

Last week, mailing listers had the winners on both the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour with headline tips Bob MacIntyre 80/1 and Laurie Canter 28s doing the business. Join the mailing list here

Corey Conners 50/1 fits all the criteria I look for in a golf bet. Progressive form, confidence, strong course fit and course history, and of course overpriced versus my fair odds. Conners is just about peaking right now as we hit a huge two weeks on the golfing calendar. He won the Rivermead for being the top Canadian at the Canadian Open. He owns two top 25s here with current 11-13-26-6 form making him a 9.4 on my progressive form model. Conners is second in SG: approach the green which is the n0.1 key metric this week.

Victor Perez 175/1 closed with back-to-back 64s at the Canadian Open for a sneaky 3rd place. The Frenchman has been quiet since his move Stateside but seems to be finding his feeet. Perez is a Wentworth specialist which in my opinion shares lots of similarities with Muirfield Village. It's a ball strikers playground with emphasis on approaches just like Wentworth. Poor chippers are not at such a disadvantage as at Memorial a lot of flop shots are required out of the rough. The likes of deChambeau, Morikawa and Hovland have showed a weakness around the greens can be somewhat overlooked here. The Frenchman has 6 international wins and ranks 23rd in approach shot performance.

Want all this week's picks for the Memorial Tournament and the DP World Tour? Join the 2024 Nicspicks Mailing List  to receive PGA and DP World Tour picks by email every week.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship