2024 US Open Preview - Stick With In Form Conners for Pinehurst Test


It will take a particular skill set for the Pinehurst No.2 track this week

The US Open market looks strong and fairly enough priced. The man with the plan being Donald Ross will give us some clues as to what's needed at the Pinehurst No.2 test where the examination gets tougher the closer you get to the targets. Expect to see some surprises up on the leaderboard at the US Open. The course plays over 7,500 yards to a par of just 70 and only 3 players have finished under par in three editions of the US Open at Pinehurst No.2. Will Rory be spending the weekend at Pinehurst or  elsewhere? This player is 5/1 to miss the cut.

I have an in depth US Open preview over on Pinnacle so I'm not going to ramble on too much here.

We are looking for two types of players this week (or preferably players that cover both bases). The general concensus is that plenty of imagination and short game skills will be needed from shots into, around, and on the greens at Pinehurst No.2 as Martin Kaymer showed us in 2014. But, it may pay to focus on the top ball strikers who will avoid those tricky spots. Ball striking is an amalgamation of the Total Driving stat (a ratio of driving distance and accuracy combined) and greens in regulation numbers.

I was very strong and keen on Cameron Smith 40/1 at St Andrews as the Aussie grew up playing certain types of golf courses in Australia. This honed his short game skills, imagination and creativity and these skills came to the fore in Scotland. I think this week will bear plenty of similarities to the test the St. Andrews course posed and despite Cam's form being hard to weigh over on LIV I think this is compensated for in the price and he's worth a play.

Another man who falls on the other side of the coin is tee to green specialist Corey Conners 70/1 who is coming into form. Always up there in the ball striking stats he now lies and 2nd in strokes gained approach and is 3rd in ball striking. I was on Conners last week at Memorial and he started well in a similar tee to green test at Memorial before conditions got tough. However, he was one of only a few to break par on Sunday and hitting fairways and greens at Pinehurst will be vital this time around. The 32 year old ranks 19th in Total Driving. Progressive form and strengthening confidence is what we look for in betting on golf and the Canadian fits the trend nicely.....

Note: Want to see all my US Open Picks? Join my 2024 Nicspicks Mailing List  to receive PGA and DP World Tour picks by email every week...
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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