Wells Fargo Championship Preview - Aberg to Steal the Show

Total Driving is the premium at the Wells Fargo and the big Swede excels in this area

It's hard trying to find reasons to take on Scottie Scheffler who blitzed the field at Augusta and the RBC Heritage Signature Event. Maybe a newborn will slow things down a bit for the American and he takes a week off. The Aon Swing 5 didn't have a lot of time to kick in following the RBC at Hilton Head Island. The five players to earn qualification will be the top points earners from Puntacana, the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup.

Leading the market are Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, last year's winner Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg who is vying strongly for Wells Fargo Championship favouritism in my book and I'd have him a couple of ticks shorter than the market price purely for course fit. Collin Morikawa will also like the course while Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. He comes back to Charlotte after a top five at the RBC Heritage. Thomas will be gunning to win his home PGA Championship next week, taking place in Louisville, Kentucky, at Valhalla Golf Club

Course and Player Profiling

Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow is a classic parklands Championship venue. It's a beast and a major Championship track that's seen renovations turn it more from a drawers course to one that suits faders. Kevin Kisner showed us how to do it for three rounds at the 2017 PGA Championship amidst wirey  Bermuda grass that year, but then JB Holmes used the bomb and gouge technique to get his win here ten years ago. 

Course history tends to be strongly predictive here at the venue with players like Fowler and Mcilroy, Homa, Day and Mickelson repeating strong performances. McIlroy is now a three-time winner of the Wells Fargo championship and this will be a great primer for Valhalla.

The Quail Hollow track measures around 7,500 yards playing to a par of 71 and it is thickly treelined. Quail Hollow Country Club is aesthetically like Augusta in with its forestland, pristine green pastures, pinestraw and large elevated greens protected by white marble bunkering. We've seen down the years that the concoction for success is long and straight driving coupled high towering approaches into large greens. These surfaces are generally elevated with false fronts. The Green Mile will challenge the players down the stretch with water in play.

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Ludvig Aberg 12/1 might look a short price but in a limited Signature event field and on this particular Quail Hollow course I fancy him strongly. I rarely back "on the nose" but this is one of those instances where I will. Quite simply the best drivers of the ball go well at Quail Hollow, with shorter iron approaches and the ability to come in high to elevated greens such an advantage. There's talk that Ludvig might even be a better driver of the ball than Rory. The big Swede is currently 3rd in Total Driving, 12th in SG:OTT and he also ranks 10/10 for strokes gained approach in my model, and 4th in proximity. You don't usually see driving accuracy ranks of 31st for such big hitters either. Aberg is a 10.0 in my course fit model for Quail Hollow. Note: Aberg now a WD (non runner)

My other big fancy (at the price) of a handful of selections is Justin Thomas 30/1 who has found  a resurgence of form in 2024. He's already shown us his course suitability for Quail Hollow when it was playing at its toughest for the 2017 PGA Championship which Thomas won. He comes here refreshed off the back of a t5 at the RBC Heritage and ranks a standout 7th in strokes gained approach.

Si Woo Kim 40/1 has been simmering hard this year with a load of top 30 finishes. His best was a t6 at the Players Championship but he's trending now with a form line of 30-18-13. His progressive form rating in my model is 9.0 out of 10. As always he's right up there in all the ball striking stats, ranking 15th off the tee and 17th in approach. He's 4th in strokes gained tee to green, excellent for Quail Hollow.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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