Canadian Open Picks and Preview 2024 - Back Bobby Mac to Strike Gold at Hamilton

Robert MacIntyre is finding his flow on the PGA Tour

There's a European Flavour to the Canadian Open market led by Rory McIlroy at 4/1. Rory's partner in crime for the Zurich Classic win, Shane Lowry, last year's Canadian Open playoff loser Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren take up four of the first five sports in the betting. Sahith Theegala infiltrates them as the only American present, but lurking just outside the top five in the market are Sam Burns and Cameron Young who this time last year would have been top 3 in the betting in present company. 

Canadian Nick Taylor, who I'm happy to say we were on board at 80s + last year was the first Canadian to win their home Open in decades. As for the Canadians now, Taylor, Adam Hadwin and Mac Hughes all broke the top thirty last time out at this track. Ben Silverman also recorded a top 20 and is currently showing progressive form. Corey Conners will be looking for a good showing as will Taylor Pendrith and a home winner again would not surprise.

Course and Player Profiling

We're back at the low scoring Parklands style track Hamilton GC which will host the Canadian Open for the 7th time. Last time the Canadian Open was held here it was Irishman McIlroy who took home the cheddar with big ShaneO, second. Rory shot 61 on Sunday to win by 7 in what was a low scoring event. Hamilton GC is a par 70, newly renovated to play just over 7,000 yards. Greens are average size and equipped with mown areas now. Precision over power is the tipple here, just like last week at Colonial.

Key metrics and premiums

Driving accuracy 
Proximity to the hole
Approach from 100-150 yards
Par breakers
Putting from 10-20ft

Nic's Picks for the Canadian Open

Want all this week's picks? Join the 2024 Nicspicks Mailing List  to get my weekly PGA Tour and DP World Tour picks by email.

We won't be backing any of the favourites at this week's Canadian Open and instead, we'll start by sticking with Tom Kim 33/1. Joohyung had a chance to win going into the final day at Colonial, albeit that would have needed a collapse by Davis Riley and a low round by Kim. It turned out to be one of those windy days where most players went backwards and you can pretty much disregard the data in rounds like that. The course played more than 2.5 shots harder than it did the day before and the wind made it difficult to hit fairways and greens, while the rough was around half a stroke penalty. Kim is progressing nicely form wise as I said in last week's preview and I expect a big performance and 4 good rounds from him soon.

Bob MacIntyre 80/1 is an auto pick for me this week. As I alluded to, I'm prepared to chuck the Colonial results out the window especially as it was a newly renovated course and the week after a major. A major where MacIntyre secured a top 10 with an eagle on the 72nd hole and this followed a top 15 one week earlier at Myrtle Beach. Robert says he's starting to settle in on US soil and find some form with the flat stick......

Want all this week's picks? Join the 2024 Nicspicks Mailing List  to get my weekly PGA Tour and DP World Tour picks by email.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship