2024 PGA Championship Picks and Betting Preview - Can Anyone Stop the Scheff?

Can anyone stop Scottie Scheffler from claiming his third major title?

The 2nd of this year's majors comes from the fabulous Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla Golf Course. Host of the 1996 PGA Championship, the 2000 PGA, and the 2014 PGA Champs as well as the 2008 Ryder Cup, Valhalla is a fantastic parklands-style venue that will separate the men from the boys. Those hoping Scottie Scheffler will be still absent have been unlucky as the market leader tees it up at a price of 4/1 following the birth of his child. Scottie will look to take down his third major but first Wanamaker trophy. 

Alongside Scottie in the market is defending Champ (at Valhalla) Rory McIlroy, now as low as 11/2 in places following his fourth victory at Quail Hollow. Rory loves this kind of set up, which will be similar to Wells Fargo in last week's Signature Event. Rory chased down Xander Schauffele at Quail Hollow and ran away with it in the end. That was the perfect primer for the Valhalla test. Last year's PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka is a recent winner on the LIV golf tour and is third favourite here at 16s.

On offer for the winner of the PGA Championship aside from the normal perks, exemptions and prestige, is 750 FedEx Cup points and a winner's cheque over 3million.

Valhalla Course and Player Profiling

A fine Jack Nicklaus-designed parklands with a strong treeline and water trouble aplenty, the difficulty of this course will depend on the firmness of it this week. It's a par 71 playing around 7,500 yards and features some long par 4s and strong par 3s. Iron approaches from 150-225 yard range will be pivotal as will taking chances for par breakers. Justin Thomas knows the course more than most hailing from the area and will be looking for PGA Championship number 3. Generous fairways with emphasis on approach shots and a fade off the tee is the Jack Nicklaus trademark so let's see how it plays out. Total Driving and high trajectory approach play will be the premium here.

The key metrics at Valhalla are:

• Total Driving
• Strokes Gained Approach
• Approaches from 150-200 yards
• High trajectory and apex with the irons
• Bogey avoidance
• Scrambling

Nic's Picks for the PGA Championship

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Ludvig Aberg 18/1 is one of my PGA Champs tips for Pinnacle. He is third in Total Driving and 17th in approach shot performance now, sitting second in proximity to the hole. I'm raging he didn't play Quail Hollow with his skill set. The 24-year-old averages a ranking of 10th in approaches from the 150-200-yard range and 15th in scrambling. He has won on both the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour and was second at the Pebble Beach Pro-am and eighth in the Players Championship. His recent runner-up spot at the Masters on his first major appearance is a sign of what's to come; It gave us a taste of what he is all about.

Collin Morikawa 28/1 is on the drift and something similar happened before he won his Open Championship at hugely negative CLV. In fact it's not a bad strategy in the majors to literally back the big name drifters on the week of the event. I mentioned Collin's course fit for Valhalla looks strong and his game is coming around. The American was T3 at the Masters followed by a top 10 in Harbour Town and he continued to simmer at Wells Fargo. He's 29th in SG: OTT courtesy of a ranking of 2nd in driving accuracy. His irons are his biggest strength but he's ranking outside the top 100 in that stategory this season. Key here though is a rank of 10th in approaches from 175-200 yards.

Benny An 60/1 can't be overlooked this week and he's already been backed into 60s. His ball striking continues to be excellent with a top 10 at Bay Hill followed by a t16 at the Masters to add to the record books. He was 4th at the CJ Cup and 3rd at Quail Hollow- the ultimate primer for the Valhalla test. He's 16th in Total Driving, yet 1st in total driving efficiency and one of the longest of the tee this year. Benny is 21st in strokes gained tee to green and the Korean is 12th in GIR and 12th in approaches from the key 175-200 yard range. It's time to throw a penny on Benny......
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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