2024 Charles Schwab Championship Picks - Tom Set to Rev the Engine

Tom Kim is finding some form again after a slow start to 2024

Does the man ever take a break? Seemingly not. The Scheff is back to head the Charles Schwab Challenge market at 11/4 after a frantic week on and off the course at Valhalla. Scottie loves Texas golf and looks to go 1 better after being 3rd and 2nd the last two years at Colonial CC. He'll have to beat another man with home ties though. Jordan Spieth 20/1 has an excellent course history at the Charles Schwab Challenge and he looks to kick-start his season. 

More big names have traveled to Texas in what is a decent event to wind down an enthralling PGA Championship. Collin Morikawa's 14/1 putter was stone cold on Sunday, unfortunately for us, and he's been close here before. Tony Finau 33/1 is another whose game is there but he's having troubles with the flat stick.

Course and Player Profiling

Colonial is a par 70 playing circa 7,200 yards with treelined fairways framing this doglegged gem. Similar to Harbour Town, the right parts of these fairways must be found from the tee. The length of the rough and the firmness of the Colonial course is variable year on year and scoring can be vastly different. Greens are narrow with some small false fronts, bunkering and spongey Bermuda rough surrounding them. We are looking more for a strategist with strong short irons and high proximity to the hole stats at Colonial. A good week with the short stick is needed as plenty of par breakers are the brief. The Texas winds can get up, and watch out for that horrible horseshoe between holes 3-5!

Key Metrics and Premiums

Driving accuracy (3) 
Irons (2) 
Proximity to the hole (approach) (3)
Holing out (3) 
Par breakers (2)
Wind play (2)

Nic's Picks For the Charles Schwab Challenge

Justin Rose 50/1 pinged back into form at Valhalla with a t6 finish and he looks a little overpriced for me in this company. Rose is a former winner on the track and has several other high finishes here including athird place and he recorded another top 15 last year at Colonial. Rosie ranks ~15th in approaches from 50-125 yards which is an interesting stat this week and obviously has the know-how to navigate Colonial. He's also one of the best from sand and it's easy to find the greenside bunkers here.

Tom Kim 55/1 is debuting at the Colonial track but if we're looking for some course similarities, look no further than Segdefield, venue for the Wyndham Championship where Joohyung Kim has previously blitzed the field. It's been a slow start to 2024 for Kim whose career trajectory got off to a flyer. "Tom" is showing progressive form of 52-47 and tied for 26th at the PGA Champs. Kim is more of a plotter type player who makes a lot of blue numbers and his progressive form rating in my model is 8.53/10.....

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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