CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Preview

Go low or go home as the players descend upon TPC Craig Ranch

We're off to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney Texas and it's go low or go home in the fourth edition (in this region) of the newly named CJ Cup Byron Nelson. A cumulative -74 under par has taken down the three editions at Craig Ranch so far. KH Lee loves a birdie fest at a TPC venue and he's won two of these already, with last year's tournament going to Jason Day. The Aussie likes it in these parts having also won the Byron Nelson back in 2010.

The market is led by local man Jordan Spieth (14/1) who made his debut at the Byron Nelson as a 16-year-old IIRC. We get a break this week from the dominator that is Scottie Scheffler as his wife is due to give birth. Usually as golf bettors we love a short priced favourite as it creates value down the market but obviously the Scheff didn't get the memo that he's not actually meant to get the W!

Course Profile

Birdie makers are the target here. Strong putters are on the radar and not necessarily big nor accurate hitters are the typical profile at the venue. TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 playing over 7400 yards but there's no real power-hitting theme on the leaderboard over the last three CJ Cup Byron Nelson events. Good total driving and proximity with the mid-irons and shorter irons will be required. The total birdies and par breaker stats will be firmly in the window, as will form in this part of the US. The only real defence of the course is if the wind gets up significantly.

Nic's Picks

Total driving and putting  / birdie making are the premiums at TPC Craig Ranch so the in-form Belgian Thomas Detry looks a play at 40/1. Detry is 10th in birdie average and comes here off the back of a top 10 alongside Bob McIntyre in the Zurich Classic. Recently 2nd at the Texas Children's Houston Open, the Belgian is 18th in strokes gained putting and ranks 11th in putting from 10-15 feet - a key birdie stat this week.

Mark Hubbard at 66/1 is a standout price here off the back of a 3rd place finish alongside Ryan Brehm at the Zurich Classic. There's a lovely consistent streak in terms of the current and course form concoction for Hubbard who posted top 35s the last two years here and has finished no worse than 36th in his last four singles events on the PGA Tour. Hubbard ranks fifth in birdies or better % in 2024..........

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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