Qatar Masters Tips 2024

Spaniard Nacho Elvira looks overpriced for the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters

Five guys of interest for me in Qatar this week. We're looking for strong wind players at Doha GC usually but the forecast looks like breezes will be a bit lighter this year. Strong drivers usually come to the fore at Doha GC, and with the wind down power may prevail.

I'll get straight to the picks with a quick run down and I'm sticking with Aaron Cockerill here at 50/1. He's one of the guys in the best form on tour now and his progressive form rating on my model is now 10.0 following a top 6 last week. The Canadian has a couple of appearances here finishing 21st and 47th.

Pablo Larrazabal 40/1 has a stellar record at Doha GC including a couple of top 5s. We were on him after he finished 4th a few weeks back but he missed the cut. the Spanish shot maker is good in the wind and bounced back with a top 30 last week so I'll give him another chance here.

We'll go with last week's winner Dylan Fritelli on price alone at around 66/1. Conditions will be similar this week and the South African is a cut above most of this field. I'm not sure where this price is coming from for him to challenge again. 

Niklas Norgard 45/1 is progressing into form with 63-34-8 finishes. I probably wouldn't go with the big hitter this week except for the wind is forecast to be down, and he'll have a good chance to overpower the course.

Last but not least is a very obvious bet at big odds in Nacho Elvira at 100/1. The Spaniard has a standout course and current form concoction and has a runner up spot here along with finishing 3rd last season. He's started the season in simmering fashion and was t16 in Ras Al Khaimah finishing with three rounds of 67 over the weekend....

(odds quoted are the general prices across oddschecker)

Tip 1: 0.5u win Aaron Cockerill 50/1, 1u top 10 11/2
Tip 2: 0.5u win Pablo Larrazabal 40/1, 1u top 10 4/1
Tip 3: 0.5u win Niklas Norgard 45/1, 1u top 10 5/1
Tip 4: 0.5u win Dylan Fritelli 66/1, 1u top 10 15/2
Tip 5: 0.5u win Nacho Elvira 100/1, 1u top 10 9/1
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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