2024 Dubai Invitational Tips and Preview

Rory McIlroy might be in-cognito at the Dubai Invitational following his Rahm-induced U-turn on the LIV situation 

Rory McIlroy might not be everyone's favourite player in golf right now but he is the favourite for the Dubai Invitational. With a price of 3/1 against his name though, that's good for golf bettors around globe. The Dubai Invitational 2024 is the inaugural edition of the event and it features 60 pros and 60 amateurs with the top pros and amateurs being paired together on the Saturday, and pros only in round 4 competing for their share of a 2.5 million purse.

Following Rory in the market are his Ryder Cup team mates Tommy Fleetwood 8.0 and Nicolai Hojgaard 13.0. Nicolai comes here off the back of a recent win in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship, albeit on what will prove a vasly different test of track. Nicolai's progressive form on my model in a top score of 10.0.

The course - Dubai Creek Resort

We have no real course form to go on at Dubai Creek Resort but a quick look at the terrain shows us we are playing at a similar course to the one we'll see next week at the Dubai Desert Classic. Indeed only the Emirates course is older than the Dubai Creek track in this part of the world. It's a tight track with a lot of water trouble. The fairways are twisty and surrounded by the aqua, sands and desert scrub. Dubai Creek Resort plays just over 7,000 yards to a par 71 and the profile we are looking for here is one of a more accurate plodder type with a neat short game for the undulating greens.

The Contenders

Antoine Rozner 45/1 was trending into form pre-Christmas and shows a progressive form rating of 8.67 on my model. Rozner was the round 1 leader in Mauritius with an opener of 62, eventually finishing t29 after a poor final round. The Frenchman was 15th in GIR last season on the DP World Tour and has form in the desert with a win in Qatar and here in Dubai.

Marcel Siem 50/1 is a player who returned to some form of old in 2023 and finished off the season with form reading 11-15-29, with two more top 10s not long before that. The Hero Indian Open winner ranked 6th in strokes gained putting in 2023. The German also record a t2 at the Porsche European Open.....

Jeff Winther 75/1 doesn't get the credit he deserves and the Dane finished in the top eleven places five times at the back end of season 2023 on the DP World Tour. This included a top 10 at the season finale DP World Tour Championship. Winther knows how to go low and puts the par breakers together in streaks. He won the Mallorca Golf Open in 2021 and ranked fifth in putts per GIR last season.

Dubai Invitational Tips

All tips advised to general OP prices on Oddschecker

Antoine Rozner 45/1 - 0.5u win, 1u top 10 @3/1
Marcel Siem  50/1 - 0.5u win, 1u top 10 @4/1
Jeff Winther 75/1 - 0.5u win, 1u top 10 @9/2
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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