2024 Bahrain Championship Tips

Max Kieffer is showing some serious progressive form ahead of a shootout at the Bahrain Championship

It's another unfamiliar track to me in Bahrain this week and we've little to go on in what I'd call a C-grade field. It's a sample size of 1 but a look at the 2011 Volvo Golf Champions leaderboard here on this Royal GC course does show an obvious theme of more accurate point-to-point players. Paul Casey's win at -20 total, 1 shot ahead of 2 players tells us we can expect par breakers to rule again in Bahrain.

In what is a very weak field with no standout favourite, this is one of those cases where there just isn't any need to chance anyone from the top echelons of the market. Shinkwin is the first tempter on the list for me down around 50/1, but following him last week, he hit a lot of loose shots after his brilliant first round lead. 

The Course and Contenders

I'm going to throw a few darts on big pricers here on a par 72 track measuring over 7,200 yards. Emphasis on accuracy and birdie conversions and I expect it will play much like last week unless it blows significantly. Wind s set to get up to a steady 15-20mps which equates to 1.5-2 shots. Greens are large and undualting on this Colin Montgomerie layout.

Aaron Cockerill 66/1 is showing a progressive form rating of 9.67 on my model. 32nd is the Canadian's worst finish in the last 5 DP World tour events, a spell bested by a t4 at the Dubai Desert Classic. He's simmering nicely, bookending his Ras al Khaimah tournament with 67s.

Max Kieffer 66/1 is the very obvious bet in the field with serious progressive form in all areas. He owns a progressive form rating of 9.06 after a t4 at the Ras al Khaimah championship where he shot four rounds in the sixties, the best of which was 66 on sunday. Kieffer has a win at the birdie fest that is the Czech Masters under his belt and has recorded aseveral runner up finishes on the DP world Tour.

Joshua Grenville Wood 125/1 is the man representing the UAE but hails from England. The Englishman has some course knowledge and form here from one of the lesser tours and also hit a top 10 last week with four rounds in the sixties. Recent strong performances in this part of the world with t6 in Qatar and 12th at the Saudi Open catch the eye.

Angel Hidalgo 175/1 finsihed t9 last week after looking a shoo-in for a top 5 finish down the stretch. That may have masked his correct his odds but as they are now in this field, they're too big for the promising Spaniard with good amateur pedigree, who already has some top finishes on the DP World Tour to his name. Well worth taking a chance on this week in various markets.......

(odds quoted are the general prices across oddschecker)

Tip 1: 0.5u win Aaron Cockerill 66/1, 1u top 10 6/1
Tip 2: 0.5u win Max Kieffer 66/1, 1u top 10 6/1
Tip 3: 0.5u win Joshua Grenville-wood 125/1, 1 u top 10 11/1
Tip 4: 0.5u win Angel Hidalgo 175/1, 1u top 10 14/1
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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