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Few thoughts and possible plays for Mallorca and the Zozo Champs

Mornings chaps, bit of a quiet one this week with two shall we say so-so main golf events for betting purposes. It's been a while since I stayed mostly in the higher echelons of the market in a full field event but in Mallorca I do have some guys I think may contend around the 33s mark. Don't be too quick to poo poo prices in the top tier, it's all relative to field strength. The main problem here could be the wind which is what I would be worried about when backing somewhat shorter prices.

Mallorca

Anyway I've nailed down a handful of guys who are scoring high on my progressive form model (yes I have an actual model for my sins) and these guys theoretically should be there or thereabouts. Course info is a little scarce but I've got a mix of playing styles: Wilco Nienaber 33s, Alex Bjork 28s, Romain Langasque 40s, JB Hansen 33s have all been playing well for a few weeks now. Pablo Larrazabal has too but at 28/33s I don't mind passing there. It's Just Nino Bertasio at around 100s is a longshot I want onside and I'm going to have a few shillings on my man Gavin Green too who is fiiiiinally finding a bit of form. Another FRLdar perhaps?

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The Zozo championship is at Accordia Narashino which I call Asia's Firestone. It was soft and mild here in 2019 and it was all about tee to green and high approach proximity to the hole - Hideki style. Keegan Bradley - a poor man's Hideki even put in a low one. I never understood this phrase but to make a long story boring....Will Zalatoris 18s, Joaquin Niemann 20s, and Emilliano Grillo 40s all fit the profile in a half field event and all have been simmering of late. Grillo closed with a 61 last week.

Of the outsiders for the sub markets and a sprinkle ew on the outright, on the radar are Sung Kang 125s, Adam Long 150s, and Matt Jones 80s. Long has that exact Hideki/Keegan style straight and high tee to green flight we are looking for here and he can chuck in the odd low one. Sung Kang is forever underrated by the market. We have been on him the last few weeks and I made him around half his OP. He was FRL 2 weeks ago at Shriners with a 61 and threw in a 64 last week for good measure. FRLs on Long and Kang too 

All the best as we come towards the end of a great season

Bryan

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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