Thoughts on the Fortinet Championship and Dutch Open

Not too much from me in the Dutch Open this week. We have yet another new track to sink our teeth into - It's a heathland, pretty generous Kyle Phillips design. Phillips is the designer of the likes of Kingsbarns which has plenty of room from the markers and lends itself to low scoring. It's Brandon Stone and Lee Slattery for me before the off. Both players are sneaking back into form and relative to the field the prices simply don't reflect that. Stone's ball striking has been on point over the last few outings while Slatts has 4 x top 40s in a row culminating in a t13 at Cran.

Dutch Open Tips 

Brandon Stone 50/1 ew / frl
Lee Slattery 100/1 ew / frl

I've posted a Ryder Cup preview over on Pro Betting tips which is a new educational content betting site.

If you've ever wondered about the fickleness of golf betting markets, take a look at Hank Lebioda's form below. Just a few weeks back following a run of top 10s he was priced around the 33/1 - 40/1 mark in a similar field at the 3M. This week he came in as high as 200/1. What's the difference? Not the field, that's pretty similar - take Jon Rahm out and it's probably weaker. The 2x MCs and the WD is what the bare data shows and that's what the odds reflect as it will always be. The fact is though that in those 3 events Lebioda had just 1 poor round of 76. His other 5 rounds were all 69s. Now don't get me wrong, that 33/40 was too short but he's too high this week in my opinion.

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This part of the PGA Tour season is always interesting - the old fall series. We have the Korn Ferry Tour boys and usually the main tour players less the elite playing in these events and it always takes a while to get up to scratch with the pricing. It can be hard for the compilers or the bigger betfair originators to quantify the true odds in the "mixed" events. This is where I thrive.

So who looks overpriced this week? 

Well the outsiders and course specialists will be the focus and two guys that fit the latter criteria are 2 time Safeway winner here at Silverado Brendan Steele, and shot shaping maestro Adam Hadwin. Key this week is ball flight with the irons shaping it both ways around a treelined dog-legged track. Steele says he loves the resort at this time of year while Hadwin just owns the course fit profile.

Others overlooked in the betting are Hudson Swafford who is in the 50-66/1 bracket on my tissue. When Harris English plays well, so does Hudson ;) 2nd at Palmetto, then showing progressive form of t37 11 - 17 the latter 2 in the playoffs, Swafford is the typical example of someone getting lost in the 2 tour crossover, opening 100-150s. 

2 graduates from the Korn Ferry Tour that pique my interest for Silverado are Brandon Wu and Trey Mullinax at the 200-250 mark while KFT Tour champs winner Joseph Bramlett - a regular for us when possible - is also overpriced and basically underrated by the market. These are 3 guys with an abundance of talent and they might show it at big prices. 

Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice, full shortlists and sub market plays are available through my members mailing list - click link for info

Fortinet Championship Tips 
Adam Hadwin 70/1 ew / frl 
Brendan Steele 90/1 ew / frl 
Joseph Bramlett 100/1 ew / frl 
Hudson Swafford 100/1 ew / frl
Hank Lebiada 125/1 ew / frl 
Brandon Wu 200/1 ew / frl 
Trey Mullinax 200/1 ew / frl

Angles and edges book

If you enjoyed this preview there's plenty on what's behind my methodology and thought process, plus loads more in my golf betting book "Angles & Edges"....

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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