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BMW PGA Championship Tips - Perez the victor at the 2nd attempt?

BMW PGA Championship tips - Perez to shine at Wentworth
The first thing I note about the BMW PGA Championship market is the prices of some of the faves with current or course form being undercut by more than what I would say is the norm. 

I've outlined the bad bets (square) and the good bets (sharp) with pink and green shading respectively in the top 25 of the market in my BMW Championship odds sheet below. The market prices on the guys in pink are a fair bit less than my true odds estimates and should be avoided in my opinion if you are price sensitive .......... 

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Victor Perez came close to winning the BMW championship last year and he demonstrated a strong course fit for Wentworth. He's available at 50/1 8 places or slightly bigger if you want to go for the lesser places option (I advise against this)

Here are the premiums for Wentworth where there's a strong emphasis on tee to green play. Directly below that are my top 25 vs the BMW PGA Championship field odds estimates and rankings. My odds are to a 100% tissue as always. The guys in green as mentioned are the sharp(value) bets. Keep scrolling down for reasoning on some of my main bets and a link to my book.....

BMW PGA Key Metrics and Premiums

BMW PGA Championship key metrics and premiums

BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS CHARTBMW PGA Championship Odds Chart


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As you can see from above I make Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger a little bit of value. There's not a lot to these picks except for the fact they are underrated by the market in my opinion and the difference is as usual, mainly coming from my course fit weighting. 

Lee has plenty of form at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship and Bernd is coming off the back of a recent near miss in Cran where arguably he should have won...but then again so should Ross McGowan! Would have been nice. Both men thrive from tee to green and there's the little matter of the Ryder Cup on their minds. The exact same goes for Justin Harding who is a much better player than his odds suggest most weeks.

Two outsiders I'm interested in are James Morrison and Benjamin Hebert. Both players have been showing streaks of great form lately with a number of low rounds between them. The Morrison and Wentworth connection go back a long way and he owns some brilliant form here. One year he led at halfway by about 6 shots iirc. James traded very low odds on in Scotland a few weeks back and a W may be right around the corner. He reckons he is flushing it after some coaching with Robert Rock. He loves the firmer conditions on this Wentworth course. I'm not sure how it's playing this week

In the case of Hebert it's a lot like my thinking behind Laporta at a huge price last week and he ended up 4th. It's a case of playing much better than the bare data suggests in terms of finishing positions. It hasn't been a great year for the Frenchman who was a prolific winner on the Challenge tour but I've noticed he is still ranking in the top 25 for strokes gained approach regardless. He has a fee decent finishes at the BMW PGA Championship and the iron game is his strong suit which should stand him in good stead this week.

BMW PGA Championship Tips

Tip 1: Lee Westwood 33/1 ew
Tip 2: Burnt Cheeseburger 40/1 ew
Tip 3: Victor Perez 50/1 ew (8 places) / frl
Tip 4: Justin Harding 80/1 ew /frl
Tip 5: James Morrison 200/1 ew / frl / top 20
Tip 6: Ben Hebert 250/1 ew / frl  / top 40

Angles and edges book

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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