BMW PGA Championship Tips - Perez the victor at the 2nd attempt?
The first thing I note about the BMW PGA Championship market is the prices of some of the faves with current or course form being undercut by more than what I would say is the norm.
I've outlined the bad bets (square) and the good bets (sharp) with pink and green shading respectively in the top 25 of the market in my BMW Championship odds sheet below. The market prices on the guys in pink are a fair bit less than my true odds estimates and should be avoided in my opinion if you are price sensitive .......... Follow @NicsPicks
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Victor Perez came close to winning the BMW championship last year and he demonstrated a strong course fit for Wentworth. He's available at 50/1 8 places or slightly bigger if you want to go for the lesser places option (I advise against this)
Victor Perez 80s on the machine. 2nd at Wentworth last year. Simmering form, ranks 5th in strokes gained approach, for probably the most "2nd shot track" type gaff on the Euro Tour #backtolay?— Bryan Nicholson (@NicsPicks) September 7, 2021
Here are the premiums for Wentworth where there's a strong emphasis on tee to green play. Directly below that are my top 25 vs the BMW PGA Championship field odds estimates and rankings. My odds are to a 100% tissue as always. The guys in green as mentioned are the sharp(value) bets. Keep scrolling down for reasoning on some of my main bets and a link to my book.....
BMW PGA Key Metrics and Premiums
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As you can see from above I make Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger a little bit of value. There's not a lot to these picks except for the fact they are underrated by the market in my opinion and the difference is as usual, mainly coming from my course fit weighting.
Lee has plenty of form at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship and Bernd is coming off the back of a recent near miss in Cran where arguably he should have won...but then again so should Ross McGowan! Would have been nice. Both men thrive from tee to green and there's the little matter of the Ryder Cup on their minds. The exact same goes for Justin Harding who is a much better player than his odds suggest most weeks.
Two outsiders I'm interested in are James Morrison and Benjamin Hebert. Both players have been showing streaks of great form lately with a number of low rounds between them. The Morrison and Wentworth connection go back a long way and he owns some brilliant form here. One year he led at halfway by about 6 shots iirc. James traded very low odds on in Scotland a few weeks back and a W may be right around the corner. He reckons he is flushing it after some coaching with Robert Rock. He loves the firmer conditions on this Wentworth course. I'm not sure how it's playing this week
In the case of Hebert it's a lot like my thinking behind Laporta at a huge price last week and he ended up 4th. It's a case of playing much better than the bare data suggests in terms of finishing positions. It hasn't been a great year for the Frenchman who was a prolific winner on the Challenge tour but I've noticed he is still ranking in the top 25 for strokes gained approach regardless. He has a fee decent finishes at the BMW PGA Championship and the iron game is his strong suit which should stand him in good stead this week.
BMW PGA Championship Tips
Tip 1: Lee Westwood 33/1 ew
Tip 2: Burnt Cheeseburger 40/1 ew
Tip 3: Victor Perez 50/1 ew (8 places) / frl
Tip 4: Justin Harding 80/1 ew /frl
Tip 5: James Morrison 200/1 ew / frl / top 20
Tip 6: Ben Hebert 250/1 ew / frl / top 40
If you enjoyed this preview there's plenty on what's behind my methodology and thought process, plus loads more in my golf betting book "Angles & Edges"....