Czech Masters Tips: Bombs Away at Albatross

Vincent Norrman has a strong course fit for Albatross GC

The Czech Masters is an event that has been good to us down the years and there's a reason for it; If you're not targeting the bombers (and preferably the elite bombers) you're putting yourself at a big disadvantage straight off the bat. Par 5s, short par 4s, generous landing areas and just in general nothing too penal unless deserved courtesy of a very errant shot on some risk/reward holes. So basically it's a very fair test in a big hitters playgound. Unless high winds get up we have a lot of predictive value. I've posted screenshots down the years here as this event has been going on of leaderboard dominance by the longest in the fields. We took advantage of this with both Gavin Green and John Daly posting -8 for first round leader (with two others) averaging 150/1 a few years ago, and also way back for a then little known Thomas Pieters maiden win at 90/1.

The correlating course here is the Dom Pedro Victoria course in Portugal. It's basically the same course in a different country in nearly every way. There are plenty of players who pop up on both boards regularly, unsurprisingly, so if we are looking for more course form, It's not a bad angle to look there instead. Here are the premiums for Albatross GC:

Albatross GC Key Metrics / Premiums
click model image to use interactive version

It's important to understand the predictive and true probability significance of course fit. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the top 10 percentile of long hitters here are pushing an edge of close to 10 shots over the 4 days over the tournament in total vs the field average DD guys. It take years of empirical evidence to come to understand this - plugging stats into random models won't cut it without understanding exactly the dynamics of course fit.

Czech Masters Picks

Vincent Norrman 28/1 ew came onto many people's radars when he holed out for a oner on a par 4 in Germany a few months back. He has strong amateur pedigree for those that don't know him. He leads the tour this year in strokes gained off the tee and ranks 4th in driving distance. This is the player profile we are targeting for Albatross GC at the Czech Masters and he's the 1 from the top of the market I like. He's already shown us he's well capable of topping this kind of field, with some near misses.

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Brandon Stone 60/1 ew is a player who has shown a strong affinity with the Oceanico course in Portugal. Stones' recent bare stats form figures are pretty atrocious hence what looks like a relatively very big price in a field of this nature. I've seen Stone at 18/1 in this type of company. Those numbers may be a bit deceiving though. He went quiet after his latest win but last week on a strong layout he just missed the cut. Notably he was 3rd in strokes gained off the tee at the time so I'm going to take a chance that his game is coming around in time for a course that really suits. Stone makes birdies for fun when he is on.

There are more picks on my members email so last but not least for the blog preview is another Swede in Niklas Lemke 100/1 ew who (updated) the field is now giving 15 yards to in driving distance. The big man sits 11th in driving distance and is ~45th in birdies over the last 2 seasons. Lemke is a streaky player whose ceiling is high: he owns plenty of top 6 finishes on the Challenge and European Tours and has a couple of 'W's on the Nordic tour. A t44 last week in Kent has piqued my interest. A fast start last week for Niklas and maybe one to watch again in the FRL market at a price.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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