GOLF BETTING: Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips - 2 in a row for Sungjae IM?

The ball striking theme continues at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but emphasis this week is on long iron approaches, marginally pipping driving efficiency

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips Guide

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Arnold Palmer Invitational target player proflie:

Top ball striker high in the total driving charts and strong with the long irons. Par 5 destroyers.

The course - Bay hill, par 72, 7,454 yards

Key features: Large Bermuda greens with run offs into thick rough or deep bunkers. Water hazards. Easy par 5s. Usually windy. Can be cold early morning so ball doesn't travel as far.

Premium on:

Lots of lengthy iron approaches for second shots so strong mid to long iron play is the emphasis here. Must play from fairways. Scoring needs to be done on the par 5s.

Chicken nuggets: for the Players Championship

Scoring here depends of how they set the course up which seems to be ever changing year on year in terms of rough depth and fairway width. Rough is usually thick and conditions get faster and firmer as the week goes on.

Kiradech aphibarnrat was a strange name on the leaderboard in recent years. A deeper look into the stats tells you why: He went -20 for the par 5s through the 2015 and 2016 editions.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Metric leaders

Arnold Palmer Invitational Rankings
(est. fair win odds to 100%)
1. Rory McIlroy 10/1
2. Tommy Fleetwood 12/1
3. Sungjae Im 16/1
4. Bryson De Chambeau 20/1
5. Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
6. Patrick Reed 25/1
7. Jason Day 25/1
8. Brooks Koepka 25/1
9. Benny An 28/1
10. henrik Stenson 33/1....

Arnold Palmer Invitational Featured Tips : (scroll down for tips)

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Sungjae Im 28/1 EW / FRL. A lot of players tend to disappear for a bit after a win but we've seen a few go back to back and Sungjae Im strikes me as the latter type of character. Sungjae has played the most golf on tour over the last year and a half and I fully expect him to carry on his Honda Classic form into Bay Hill where he finished 3rd last season. IM led the strokes gained: tee to green stat at PGA National and a quick look up will point out a ranking of 4th this year in par five performance - arguably the no. 1 key metric for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Interestingly enough Maverick McNealy 100/1 EW / 1st round leader ew, is my longshot tip this week and he ties Sungjae at 4th in the par 5 ranking so far this year. Maverick is touted as a potential superstar and he's beginning to find form on the main tour after a few mentality issues. He carded an 11th place finish in honda to show #simmering 15,5,27,11 form in a strong stretch of events. Maverick has experience at Bay Hill finishing t46 in 2016.

* Please note that Tips 3, 4 and 5 are available on the >> members mailing list

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Please note that Nicspicks has a members mailing list which provides exclusive extra insights and advice on the week's main golf tournaments for betting, as well as all (usually 4 or 5) for each event. They include my shortlists of golfers fancied for various markets. The email consultancy service doesn't take a lot to join and it's well worthwhile. Already thrown a few big priced winners in 2020, aswell as a strong staking plan, resulting in maximising of returns.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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