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Golf Betting Tips: Honda Classic Tips and Betting Preview

Put the drivers away and let's play as we hit the Honda classic for the start of the Florida swing

tags: Honda Classic, Golf betting tips, Honda Classic tips, Honda Classic betting tips

It's all about ball striking and hitting those fairways and greens as the Bear Trap lurks at PGA national for the Honda Classic

2020 Honda Classic Tips Guide

Honda Classic target player proflie:

Top ball striker who can shape it both ways and fly it using the wind to advantage. Hits a lot of fairways and greens and can grind out the pars. Good with the longer irons an advantage. Less than driver will be used a lot on angled tee shots in crosswinds.

The course - PGA National championship course, 7,125 yards, par 70

Key features: Welcome return to Bermuda greens, some kidney shaped 3 pronged with tucked / protected pins on firm greens. Greens were made 25% bigger last year and measure circa 7,000 square feet now. Usually Deep spinach off fairways and around greens. Some runoffs. Water everywhere. Bear Trap will cause the usual chaos down the stretch.

Premium on: Ball striking: Bogey Avoidance, wind play, driving accuracy - must play from the short grass here to have any chance of attacking pins

Chicken nuggets: for the Honda Classic

Ryan Palmer likened hitting it in the rough here off the tee to an auto 1 shot penalty (some years). Even when rough is down a little like in 2019, you still can't attack protected pin positions on firm greens. Palmer carded a final round -7 in toughest of conditions of the week on day 4 in 2019

Rickie Fowler is a local who loves the track. Holed 57/57 putts from inside 7ft on the Bermuda en route to winning in 2017. FAVOURITE.

He said:

"Had the pleasure of on course commentating @TheHondaClassic
Finally saw accuracy rewarded. 7100 yards, Rough was only 2.5 inches, greens were relatively small and firm and it took an exceptional shot to have a birdie look from off fairway. Perfect set up, great event" - Gary christian 2019

Honda Classic Key Metric leaders

Driving accuracy / Bogey avoidance


Honda Classic Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Rickie Fowler 12/1
2. Gary Woodland 16/1
3. Tommy Fleetwood 16/1
4. Brooks Koepka 18/1
5. Louis Oosthuizen 22/1
6. justin Rose 22/1
7. Billy Horschel 28/1
8. Victor Hovland 28/1
9. Dan Berger 33/1
10. Corey Conners 40/1....

Honda Classic tips and rankings live on Tuesday:

Honda Classic Featured Tips : (scroll down)

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Gary woodland 25/1 EW is the player that shows up on all key stats this week and he's coming here off a decent performance where he was in contention after 54 holes in Mexico. One of the best ball strikers in the game as he showed when winning the US Open at Pebble Beach last year, Woodland owns some decent form at Honda including a runner up finish in 2017.

New Player Offer: Click this link to get 1-8 places EW and up to £100 in free bets on Woodland and Palmer at Betfair Sportsbook (new customers only, see below)


Ryan Palmer 66/1 EW is one I'd put in the #Simmering category right now. He had a bad r3 at the Genesis but decent r4 to get it out of the system. I always love Ryan Palmer here and if you see above it will give you a clue. Basically he knows the track more than most and owns a great record here including a 2nd and 4th place. Results are a little deceptive though as he's challenged strongly here on many occasions and been amongst the leaders after certain rounds. He actually has the unwanted record of most balls in the water at the Bear trap in recent times which may have had his results looking even better if avoided. Palmer is one of the best wind players in the game as he showed again here with that -7 in round 4 last year. He is a perfect fit for PGA National.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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