Dubai Desert Classic Tips and Preview - Go with the tried and tested

Sergio Garcia will be looking to add another Desert title to his repertoire at the Dubai Desert classic


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It's the 2nd stop of the Middle East rotation as Bryson DeChambeau, new body and swing, defends at the Dubai Desert Classic after blitzing the field in 2019 on a score well into the minus 20s

Dubai Desert Classic Tips Guide

Dubai Desert Classic target player proflie: It was very much a theme of Total Driving ability at the Abu Dhabi champs last week but here in Dubai, it will be more a case of crushing the 'Strokes Gained: Off the tee' stats. Expect a very similar looking leaderboard though. Bombs off the tee and a hot putter will suffice at Emirates GC.


The course: Emirates GC par 72, 7,353 yards

Key features:

Palm and small treelined desert track with plenty of room from the tips. Lots of sandy areas for stray shots, with water hazards and dog legs on selected holes. Greens here are ever changing - from sculpted pastries, to browned out pancakes last year. Look for the bigger hitters to cut the corners and take on the par 4 17th signature hole

Course Correlation: Abu Dhabi GC

Chicken nuggets: There was a theme here in Dubai last year with the likes of Waring, Fitzpatrick and Larrazabal all saying the same thing: essentially it was a "bomb and putting test", with some greens pinched in, and the fibre down

See the key metric leaders below and that's basically my picks theme

Key Metric Leaders SG:OTT (2019)



Dubai Desert Classic top 10 vs field Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Tommy Fleetwood 10/1
2. Sergio Garcia 16/1
3. Louis Oosthuizen 16/1
4. Bernd Wiesberger 20/1
5. Henrik Stenson 20/1
6. Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
7. Mailing list pick
8. Thomas Pieters 28/1
9. Haotong Li 33/1
10. Victor Perez 33/1...

Dubai Desert Classic selected Tips below...

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Sergio Garcia is a former winner here who topped the Strokes Gained off the tee stat in 2019. No coincidence. The best drivers come to the fore during the middle east swing and Sergio is a different beast when on his home tour. With Garcia these days it's all about how much work he's been putting in, and I saw enough with his T8 in Abu Dhabi - Back Sergio at >> 20/1 - 7 places with Betway ...

Tip 2: Bernd Wiesberger 25/1 ew (7) Betway
Tip 3: Lucas Herbert 150/1 ew (7) Betway
Tip 4: members email only
Tip 5: members email only..

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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