Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips - distance control at altitude

Nedbank Golf Challenge tips - top 10 vs the field rankings
(Nedbank Challenge estimated odds to 100% fair book)

1. Louis Oosthuizen 10/1
2. Henrik Stenson 14/1
3. Tommy Fleetwood 14/1
4. Alex Noren 16/1
5. Matt Fitzpatrick
6. Haotong Li
7. Erik van Rooyen
8. Lee Westwood
9. Mailing list pick
10. Bernd Wiesberger......

The course: Gary Player CC (Sun City) par 72, 7,827 yards

Key features: Testing rough. Tree or bushlined fairways. Kidney bean and clover shaped greens. Water hazards. False fronts. Strategic bunkering.

The Gary Player CC is at high Altitude, meaning the ~longest track on tour only plays just over 7,000 yards in reality. The big test is controlling distance with approaches into the strange shaped greens with tough pin positions. A high iron ball flight is a weapon.

Premium on:

"Length combined with precision from the tee and a high ball flight from approaches is a good concoction for success around here" - Nicspicks. Greens in regulation is King at the Nedbank golf challenge.

Chicken nugget: Branden Grace hit all 18 greens in reglation on the Sunday when winning the Nedbank Challenge in 2017.

They said: "the multi-faceted greens leave plenty of options for tricky pin positions throughout the week" - ET

Nedbank Challenge Course specialists: Louis, Stenson, Kaymer, Westwood, Grace

Key Metric (greens in regulation leaders)
SMITH, Jordan - 77.57%
LUITEN, Joost - 74.54%
WARING, Paul - 73.85%
RAI, Aaron - 73.35%
ARNAUS, Adri - 73.32%

Nedbank Golf Challenge tips (selected) - join the members mailing list for all 5 Nedbank Golf Challenge tips. Weekly Tips are only available through the members email.

Alex Noren is a standout at around 22/1 ew on the sportsbook. Alex has been creeping back into form of late after not such a stellar year on Tour. He hasn't finished outside the top 35 places in his last 6 events, recording 3x top 20s. He's a former winner of the Nedbank golf challenge having blitzed the field on the Gary Player country club track in 2016. It wasn't a coincidence - horses for courses, and Alex who can eliminate the left side of the golf course and is relatively long and straight off the tee did the damage with the big stick mixed with towering approaches into these kidney shaped greens with tough pin positions. The Swede is currently 28.00 on the exchange of you fancy a back to lay... Find out more

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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