ZOZO Championship Tips Rankings and Key info

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP top 10 vs the field rankings
(Est. fair odds to 100%)
1. Justin Thomas 8/1
2. Rory McIlroy 8/1
3. Hideki Matsuyama 12/1
4. Jason Day 20/1
5. Gary Woodland 22/1
6. Jordan Spieth 22/1
7. Xander Schauffele 25/1
8. Adam Scott 25/1
9. mailing list pick 28/1
10. Tony Finau 28/1........

Below is the current Zozo Championship Exchange Market
Free £20 matched bet on Betfair through this link on signup

The course: Accordia Golf Narashino CC, par 70, 7,040 yards

Target player profile: Distance combined with accuracy from the tips will go a long way at Accordia. Approach proximity will separate the men from the boys. THIS IS A HIDEKI MATSUYAMA COURSE.

Key features: Treelined track with undulations/elevation changes into plateaued greens. A number of relatively straight holes (some doglegs) with average width fairways, and penal but fair rough in places. A number of greenside bunkers below the surfaces. Relatively soft and receptive conditions.

Chicken nuggets: Skins game played here Monday was won by Jason Day. 2 greens on the holes here.

Premium on: Total driving and proximity to the hole / SG: approach

Course correlation: Firestone CC

Key metrics leaders (those in field - 2019)

Total Driving
Gary Woodland
Paul Casey
Daniel Berger
Rory McIlroy
Jason Kokrak

Strokes gained approach
Justin Thomas
Emiliano Grillo
Adam scott
Hideki Matsuyama
Jason Kokrak

ZOZO Championship Tips

Please note that You need to Join the Nicspicks premium mailing list to get all the tips. Generally ~ 5 picks per event sent out by email on Tuesdays, early afternoon.

The Zozo Championship top tip is quite categorically Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1. Narashino CC is another track in the mould of Firestone, Scottsdale, Muirfield village and Quail hollow which I always say is my quartet of: Total driving and proximity to the hole, with a high trajectory approach courses. Hideki Matsuyama eats these courses for breakfast - in fact he's won a total of 4 times across 3 of them, and also had a t5 at Quail in the PGA champs. It's no coincidence as he regularly sits near the top of the rankings in Total Driving, proximity and approach stats. Home game for Hideki who was 3rd last week so good luck to the field.

The Top Back To Lay trade is Emiliano Grillo at a large 100.00. Again Grillo is another who excels at being long and straight off the tee with arrow like approaches. He was 12th in total driving last season and 15th in SG: tee to green. As you can see above he is 2nd in the field (2019) in approaches and was 3rd overall for the season. Decent performance last week which he can build on. Potential for a big odds swing by 36 holes. New Betfair traders/ players can get a free £20 through this link if backing him to potentially lay floats your boat.

Across the pond.....

Betfair Sportsbook are paying 1/5th odds EW 8 places on the Portugal Masters

Tags: Golf betting tips, Zozo Championship tips

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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