Specials: Open de Espana and Shriners Open

Kurt Kitayama (Opened 250s), at the Shriners Open goes down as one of the most overlooked players of the season and he's part of our main staking plan (see mailing list). I rate him around 80s-100s (and that's being generous) in this field and on this type of layout. You can see the reasons why in my main preview on the homepage. He doesn't have the best of tee times in the 2nd last grouping but if you're out late it's better to be the latest given the wind tends to die down again towards the end of play. He opened as high as 12/1 top 20 and is currently 9s best price - keep an eye on the Betfair top 20 market where he'll rise again throughout the day. He's 150/1 ew 1st round leader

Over in Spain we have Zander, Miguel and Pedro Figuerido (150/1 ew FRL) on the specials radar. Zander is known for starting fast and he has an early start at 80s ew. Shout out to Ross McGowan who blitzed the Madrid Masters in 2009 (diff track) but....

I'm more interested in the Shriners event. Russell Knox at a 3 figure price doesn't sit with me; Keith Mitchell 150s has the perfect course fit profile, while Chesson Hadley - also at 3 figs - has the course and current form concoction. Serial qualifier John Oda has done it again and he was t40 last week following a qualifier. This type of player, ala Patrick Reed, is used to going low, he's done it on the main stage, and I can see him doing it in the FRL at a big price (200/1 ew first round leader at shriners)

I've just nabbed a bit of 23/1 on Brandon Hagy top 20 on Betfair - he's 12/1 elsewhere. Make sure to see some tasty top 20 market prices here. I noticed written in my notes from a couple of years back that I was hoping he qualified for this event as his course fit profile is A+. He's 175/1 ew FRL. 1 negative is his tee time is arguably the worst but at the prices he's worth a nibble. Hagy had 2 top 5s on the webcom tour a few weeks back.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.