Italian Open Tips, Rankings and key info

Italian Open top 10 vs the field rankings
(Est. fair odds to 100%)
1. Justin Rose 12/1
2. Francesco Molinari 12/1
3. Paul Casey 12/1
4. Danny Willett 22/1
5. Shane Lowry 25/1
6. Matt Wallace 25/1
7. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1
8. Tyrell Hatton 33/1
9. Bernd Wiesberger 33/1
10. Thomas Pieters 33/1

Italian Open Course: Olgiata GC par 71, 7523 yards

Key features: Long tightish, Woodland terrain, with small undulating bent/ poa greens. Undulating fairways on back 9, some elevated surfaces with deep bunkering

Premium on: Total driving / SG:OTT, strokes gained approach / T2G. Strong mid to long iron players should fare well.

Italian Open Key metric leaders STROKES GAINED: APPROACH
(players in Italian Open field)

Rank Player Name Total Rounds Average

2 - WESTWOOD, Lee - 45 - +1.37
3 - LOWRY, Shane - 28 - +1.23
5 - HATTON, Tyrrell - 30 - +1.18
6 - SCRIVENER, Jason - 70 -+1.13
7 - MIGLIOZZI, Guido - 67 - +1.12
8 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +1.05

Strokes gained: off the tee
2 - LI, Haotong - 38 - +1.00
4 - ARNAUS, Adri - 79 -+0.94
6 - PEREZ, Victor - 64 - +0.76
8 - SOUTHGATE, Matthew - 68 - +0.70
9 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +0.69

Nuggets: Ian Poulter shot a course record 61 here to Open the 2002 Italian Open at Olgiata, which he went on to win over 3 rounds

Course correlation: Woburn (Marquess course)

Home game: Edoardo Molinari, Francesco Molinari, Andrea Pavan, Nino Bertasio, Guido Migliozzi

Italian Open top Tips Free £20 matched bet for Italian Open here (click link)

Jordan Smith 50/1 ew has been on my radar now for a few weeks and given he is one of the best "Total drivers" (distance combined with accuracy) over the last two seasons, Olgiata could be the course where he comes through again, similar to where he clicked at a lengthy Green Eagle track requiring brilliant driving and tee to green play. Jordan is currently 8th in strokes gained tee to green, 20th in SG: off the tee and 3rd in greens in reg. He is showing progressive 24-5 form and 50/60 to 1 looks tasty in this Italian Open field

Betfair Sportsbook have great terms on the Italian Open and most events throughout the year, and paying 1/5th EW 8 places on both the Houston and Italian Opens this week (click link).

New Betfair exchange players can get a
Free £20 matched bet here through this link on signup. Betfair exchange offers much better odds in general on most golf markets.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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