NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Italian Open Tips, Rankings and key info

Italian Open top 10 vs the field rankings
(Est. fair odds to 100%)
1. Justin Rose 12/1
2. Francesco Molinari 12/1
3. Paul Casey 12/1
4. Danny Willett 22/1
5. Shane Lowry 25/1
6. Matt Wallace 25/1
7. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1
8. Tyrell Hatton 33/1
9. Bernd Wiesberger 33/1
10. Thomas Pieters 33/1

Italian Open Course: Olgiata GC par 71, 7523 yards

Key features: Long tightish, Woodland terrain, with small undulating bent/ poa greens. Undulating fairways on back 9, some elevated surfaces with deep bunkering

Premium on: Total driving / SG:OTT, strokes gained approach / T2G. Strong mid to long iron players should fare well.

Italian Open Key metric leaders STROKES GAINED: APPROACH
(players in Italian Open field)

Rank Player Name Total Rounds Average

2 - WESTWOOD, Lee - 45 - +1.37
3 - LOWRY, Shane - 28 - +1.23
5 - HATTON, Tyrrell - 30 - +1.18
6 - SCRIVENER, Jason - 70 -+1.13
7 - MIGLIOZZI, Guido - 67 - +1.12
8 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +1.05

Strokes gained: off the tee
2 - LI, Haotong - 38 - +1.00
4 - ARNAUS, Adri - 79 -+0.94
6 - PEREZ, Victor - 64 - +0.76
8 - SOUTHGATE, Matthew - 68 - +0.70
9 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +0.69

Nuggets: Ian Poulter shot a course record 61 here to Open the 2002 Italian Open at Olgiata, which he went on to win over 3 rounds

Course correlation: Woburn (Marquess course)

Home game: Edoardo Molinari, Francesco Molinari, Andrea Pavan, Nino Bertasio, Guido Migliozzi

Italian Open top Tips Free £20 matched bet for Italian Open here (click link)

Jordan Smith 50/1 ew has been on my radar now for a few weeks and given he is one of the best "Total drivers" (distance combined with accuracy) over the last two seasons, Olgiata could be the course where he comes through again, similar to where he clicked at a lengthy Green Eagle track requiring brilliant driving and tee to green play. Jordan is currently 8th in strokes gained tee to green, 20th in SG: off the tee and 3rd in greens in reg. He is showing progressive 24-5 form and 50/60 to 1 looks tasty in this Italian Open field

Betfair Sportsbook have great terms on the Italian Open and most events throughout the year, and paying 1/5th EW 8 places on both the Houston and Italian Opens this week (click link).

New Betfair exchange players can get a
Free £20 matched bet here through this link on signup. Betfair exchange offers much better odds in general on most golf markets.

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Tags: Italian Open, Italian Open tips, golf betting tips

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.