Houston Open Tips, Rankings and key info

Houston Open top 10 vs the field rankings
(Est. fair odds to 100%)
1. Henrik Stenson 14/1
2. Cameron Champ 22/1
3. Brian Harman 22/1
4. Russell Henley 25/1
5. Daniel Berger 28/1
6. Keegan Bradley 33/1
7. Par Perez 33/1
8. Scottie Sheffler 33/1
9. Russell Knox 33/1
10. mailing list pick 40/1

Target Player Profile: Smart Power player with course experience and solid short putting (Houston)

GC of Houston course: par 72 7441 yards

key features Large undulating and tiered greens, generous landing areas, lots of water trouble. Greens are Bermuda expected to run 12' on the stimp

Premium on: Driving distance / SG:OTT, putting from 5-15ft

Those with a high trajectory from approach have an advantage in terms of being able to get closer to some tough tiered pin positions. You don't want to short side yourself around the GC of Houston.

Note: the different slot in the calendar will see different conditions than the normal fast and firm setup to mimic Augusta

Key Metric Leaders

2 Jhonattan Vegas 75 .753 45.956 61
T6 Cameron Champ 78 .657 44.681 68
15 Brendan Steele 68 .518 26.392 51

Putting from 5-15 feet

3 Aaron Baddeley 55 53.36 283 151
5 Dominic Bozzelli 73 51.53 326 168
8 Harris English 97 51.37 473 243
16 Patton Kizzire 76 50.15 343 172

Home game (selected): Vegas, Reed, Walker, Hossler, Tringale, Hickock

Course specialists: Stenson, Berger, Henley, Mahan, ANTHONY KIM :)

Course correlations: Augusta, Doral

Houston Open top Tips.. Free £20 matched bet for Houston Open here (click link)

Johnny Vegas 66/80 to 1 resides in Houston and went to university in Texas. He ranked 2nd in strokes gained: off the tee in 2019 season and he is no. 1 in that category of those lining up in the field this week. The larger surfaces here and expected softer conditions will lend themselves to Vegas' ball striking and give him opportunity to avoid the weak part of his game (around the greens). Vegas has 2 top 20s in his last 3 here and I feel the conditions this year may suit

Betfair Sportsbook have great terms on the Houston Open and most events throughout the year, paying 1/5th EW 8 places Houston Open this week

New Betfair exchange players can get a Free £20 matched bet through this link on signup. Betfair offers much better odds in general on most golf markets.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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