Shriners Open Tips, rankings and key insights

Shriners Open Top 10 vs the field rankings
(est fair odds to 100%)
1. Brooks Koepka 10/1
2. Patrick Cantlay 10/1
3. Bryson de Chambeau 16/1
4. Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
5. Adam scott 20/1
6. Webb Simpson 22/1
7. Tony Finau 22/1
8. Gary woodland 28/1
9. mailing list pick 33/1
10. Benny An 33/1

The course - TPC Summerlin par 71, 7,255 yards

Key Features

Desert terrain, elevation, altitude, large elevated bentgrass greens, risk reward theme, generous landing areas

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SG: Off the tee, SG:T2G, birdies/ par breakers, distance control at altitude, controlled aggression

Note: TPC Summerlin is a risk reward course where elevation changes coupled with altitude and some raised greens with run offs means both approach play and scrambling are necessary. Power off the tee is a an advantage but you can't spray it here either. Ultimately it will come down to the blue circles carded.

Kevin Na reckons he has a big advantage knowing the nuances of the greens and strong putters like Kaufman (in a previous life) and Kizzire have excelled here.

Course correlation - TPC Scottsdale, PGA West (Nicklaus private and Stadium)

Check out the full Shriners Open market here (click link)

Key metric leaders (players in Open Shriners Open field)

Par breakers (2019 in field)

3 3 Gary Woodland 87 25.00 378 1,512
T4 T4 Brooks Koepka 81 24.92 332 1,332
6 6 Patrick Cantlay 77 24.85 322 1,296
7 7 Aaron Wise 72 24.80 308 1,242
8 8 Adam Scott 63 24.59 270 1,098
9 9 Hideki Matsuyama 91 24.24 384 1,584
10 10 Troy Merritt 69 24.23 266 1,098

Strokes gained off the tee (2019 in field)

2 2 Jhonattan Vegas 75 .753 45.956 61
3 3 Bubba Watson 65 .743 37.171 50
4 4 Dustin Johnson 73 .703 39.360 56
T6 T6 Cameron Champ 78 .657 44.681 68
T6 T6 Keith Mitchell 86 .657 40.068 61
10 10 Abraham Ancer 93 .575 40.829 71
11 11 Jason Kokrak 94 .550 41.268 75
14 14 Aaron Wise 72 .533 28.799 54

Form leaders (current and or course)
Patrick Cantlay, Bryson, Cameron Champ, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, Joaquin Niemann, Chesson Hadley

Home game for Charley Hoffman, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Nick Watney, Aron wise, Kevin Stadler....

Shriners Open selected tips - Free £20 matched bet here (new customers)

Well the best value tip this week has got to be Aron wise at 66/1 ew. Wise resides in Reno and his coach has been based out of TPC Summerlin. Aron contended on his debut season at this event opening 66-65, and owns form of 10-32-15 in his successive appearances here. It's no coincidence given his field ranking of 4th and 8th respectively in the key metrics above. Wise is already a winner on tour and also owns form at the correlating event at PGA West

Kurt Kitayama 200/1 ew is a big hitting American that's won 2 times on the European tour in the last 10 months. What's more, he is showing #progressive form too with 36-21-14 recent finishes on the ET, and hit 71-71-68-69 at Wentworth last week for that 14th place. The American ranks 3rd in driving distance on the ET, and is on a course that rewards big hitters generally speaking. Track will suit his style. It may not work out but he was one of those overlooked in the market. Opened as high as 12/1 for a top 20

Matthew Wolff 50/1 isn't ranked in the stats categories yet on the PGA Tour site but I can tell you when it comes to long hitting and par breakers he passes the test with flying colours. Already a winner on the main stage, and TPC Summerlin is the type of gaff I have him profiled for. Wolff's scorecards tend to have more blue circles than a packet of smarties.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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