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Shriners Open Tips, rankings and key insights

Shriners Open Top 10 vs the field rankings
(est fair odds to 100%)
1. Brooks Koepka 10/1
2. Patrick Cantlay 10/1
3. Bryson de Chambeau 16/1
4. Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
5. Adam scott 20/1
6. Webb Simpson 22/1
7. Tony Finau 22/1
8. Gary woodland 28/1
9. mailing list pick 33/1
10. Benny An 33/1

The course - TPC Summerlin par 71, 7,255 yards

Key Features

Desert terrain, elevation, altitude, large elevated bentgrass greens, risk reward theme, generous landing areas

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SG: Off the tee, SG:T2G, birdies/ par breakers, distance control at altitude, controlled aggression

Note: TPC Summerlin is a risk reward course where elevation changes coupled with altitude and some raised greens with run offs means both approach play and scrambling are necessary. Power off the tee is a an advantage but you can't spray it here either. Ultimately it will come down to the blue circles carded.

Kevin Na reckons he has a big advantage knowing the nuances of the greens and strong putters like Kaufman (in a previous life) and Kizzire have excelled here.

Course correlation - TPC Scottsdale, PGA West (Nicklaus private and Stadium)

Check out the full Shriners Open market here (click link)

Key metric leaders (players in Open Shriners Open field)

Par breakers (2019 in field)

RANK THIS WEEK RANK LAST WEEK PLAYER NAME ROUNDS % # BIRDIES/EAGLES # HOLES
3 3 Gary Woodland 87 25.00 378 1,512
T4 T4 Brooks Koepka 81 24.92 332 1,332
6 6 Patrick Cantlay 77 24.85 322 1,296
7 7 Aaron Wise 72 24.80 308 1,242
8 8 Adam Scott 63 24.59 270 1,098
9 9 Hideki Matsuyama 91 24.24 384 1,584
10 10 Troy Merritt 69 24.23 266 1,098

Strokes gained off the tee (2019 in field)

RANK THIS WEEK RANK LAST WEEK PLAYER NAME ROUNDS AVERAGE TOTAL SG:OTT MEASURED ROUNDS
2 2 Jhonattan Vegas 75 .753 45.956 61
3 3 Bubba Watson 65 .743 37.171 50
4 4 Dustin Johnson 73 .703 39.360 56
T6 T6 Cameron Champ 78 .657 44.681 68
T6 T6 Keith Mitchell 86 .657 40.068 61
10 10 Abraham Ancer 93 .575 40.829 71
11 11 Jason Kokrak 94 .550 41.268 75
14 14 Aaron Wise 72 .533 28.799 54

Form leaders (current and or course)
Patrick Cantlay, Bryson, Cameron Champ, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, Joaquin Niemann, Chesson Hadley

Home game for Charley Hoffman, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Nick Watney, Aron wise, Kevin Stadler....

Shriners Open selected tips - Free £20 matched bet here (new customers)

Well the best value tip this week has got to be Aron wise at 66/1 ew. Wise resides in Reno and his coach has been based out of TPC Summerlin. Aron contended on his debut season at this event opening 66-65, and owns form of 10-32-15 in his successive appearances here. It's no coincidence given his field ranking of 4th and 8th respectively in the key metrics above. Wise is already a winner on tour and also owns form at the correlating event at PGA West

Kurt Kitayama 200/1 ew is a big hitting American that's won 2 times on the European tour in the last 10 months. What's more, he is showing #progressive form too with 36-21-14 recent finishes on the ET, and hit 71-71-68-69 at Wentworth last week for that 14th place. The American ranks 3rd in driving distance on the ET, and is on a course that rewards big hitters generally speaking. Track will suit his style. It may not work out but he was one of those overlooked in the market. Opened as high as 12/1 for a top 20

Matthew Wolff 50/1 isn't ranked in the stats categories yet on the PGA Tour site but I can tell you when it comes to long hitting and par breakers he passes the test with flying colours. Already a winner on the main stage, and TPC Summerlin is the type of gaff I have him profiled for. Wolff's scorecards tend to have more blue circles than a packet of smarties.

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Betfair Sportsbook are paying 1/5th EW 8 places on the Shriners Open (click link)

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


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