Safeway Open tips, rankings and key insights

Safeway Open top 10 vs field rankings
(est. fair odds to 100%)

1. Justin Thomas 10/1 Free £20 matched bet
2. Patrick Cantlay 12/1 Free £20 matched bet
3. Hideki Matsuyama 14/1
4. Sungjae Im 20/1
5. Byeong Hun an 20/1
6. Bryson De Chambeau 22/1
7. Collin Morikawa 25/1
8. Brandt Snedeker 25/1
9. Kevin Na 28/1
10. Ryan Moore 28/1

Safeway Open - offer for new customers: Free £20 matched golf bet at Betfair (click link)

Course: Silverado Resort (North), par 72 7,166 yards

Key features: Old school, treelined, parkland track. Dense, "muggy" air. Narrow tricky greens. Aesthetically similar to Augusta (Lush green, with white sands) - according to course redesigner and resort owner Johnny Miller

Premium on: Strokes gained tee to green, distance control, strokes gained approach (or proximity)

He said: "The air is like mud in this part of the States so the course plays longer than it looks" - Miller

Course specialists: Brendan Steele who has back to back wins @ 90.00 here Ryan Moore

Safeway Open tips

Betfair sportsbook are paying 1/5 8 places EW on the Safeway Open and Dunhill Links (click link)

Sungjae Im 22/1 ew is the obvious play here and he's a decent price because of the bigger names returning. Players like Justin Thomas and Bryson will be rusty though and may be worth taking on. Sungjae's form of 2 - 19 - 15, having lost in playoff last week, is the form man in the field. He finished 33rd in SG: tee to greens last season. He will win soon, very possibly at Silverado.

Byeong Hun An 28/1 ew was 6th in strokes gained tee to green last week on a course requiring similar attributes. He finished 7th in the same stat last season. Showing progressive 47-3 form, An's tee to green game should stand him in good stead around Silverado where I expect the leaderboard to have a similar look.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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