Open de Espana tips, rankings and key info

Open de Espana Top 10 vs the field rankings
(est fair odds to 100%)

1. Sergio Garcia 3/1
2. Jon Rahm 7/2
3. Rafa cabrera Bello 8/1
4. Haotong Li 16/1
5. Adri Arnaus 20/1
6. Mailing list pick 25/1
7. Ross Fisher 25/1
8. Callum Shinkwin 25/1
9. Pablo Larrazabal 33/1
10. Andrea Pavan 33/1

The course - Club de Campo Madrid par 71, 7,112 yards

Key Features

Tight treelined track with narrow, raised greens, protected by bunkers

Premium on

Keeping the ball in play / position off the tee, and approach play / GIR

Course correlation - Valderrama, Colonial CC

Key metric leaders (players in Open de Espana field)

Driving accuracy

Rank - Player Name- Total Rounds- Fairways Hit- vs Field Average
9 USA CATLIN, John 60 69.4% +8.5%
10 WAL MANLEY, Stuart 76 69.3% +11.4%
12 IND CHAWRASIA, S.S.P. 51 68.5% +8.5%
14 SWE KARLBERG, Rikard 30 68.0% +6.3%
16 SUI GIRRBACH, Joel 42 67.4% +10.8%

Strokes gained approach

Rank -Player Name- Total Rounds -Average per Round
1 ESP GARCIA, Sergio 31 +1.575
6 AUS SCRIVENER, Jason 66 +1.140
13 RSA LOMBARD, Zander 69 +0.936
14 ENG FISHER, Ross 55 +0.928
16 ITA GAGLI, Lorenzo 62 +0.883
19 POR FIGUEIREDO, Pedro 68 +0.831

Form leaders (current and or course)

Sergio garcia, Callum Shinkwin, Andrea Pavan, xander lombard, callum Hill

Open De Espana selected tips - Free £20 matched bet here (new customers)

We have been with Adri Arnaus a fair bit in recent weeks and we'll stick with him here at 28/1ew vs my estimated fair odds of 20s. 1 big hitting graduate got his maiden victory at the Dunhill when Victor Perez got it done and it won't be long until Arnaus does the same. I fancy a home winner strongly this week at the Open de Espana and if anyone is to upset Rahm and Garcia, Arnaus could be the man. 2nd at Albatross and 6th at the Omega Masters in recent weeks on chalk and cheese courses, so those "Spanish hands"can get it done anywhere

Callum Shinkwin 50/1 NB: VOID Non runner is one of the most in form players on the European Tour right now. Signs were there when he went low on day 1 of the Czech Masters, and then he narrowly missed out on the 'W' at the KLM Open. Shinkwin followed that up last week closing out 63-67 for a top 10 at the Dunhill Links. The Englishman ranks 1st on tour this year in strokes gained off the tee and Club de Campo Madrid may set up well for him. Overpriced.

Since Shinks is now a WD I'll feed you one from the premium mailing list and you may have noticed I left a no. 6 in the strokes gained approach key metric (above) yesterday. That was a clue to the simmering (35-33-49) Spaniard, who is actually Porteguese but don't let it ruin the narrative, that could turn up on home soil this week. Pedro FIGUEIREDO 250/1 ew won't have enough to win most likely, but will feature in my specials bets this week - 150/1 1st round leader ew (#FRLdar)

Betfair Sportsbook are paying 1/5 7 places EW on the Open De Espana (click link)

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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