KLM Open Rankings, insights and best bet

KLM Open Top 10 vs the field rankings | Twitter:@Nicspicks
(Prices are estimated fair odds to 100%)

1. Thomas Pieters 10/1
2. Patrick Reed 10/1
3. Martin Kaymer 12/1 (1st in par 5 scoring, 10th in approach)
4. Sergio Garcia 12/1 (1st in SG:approach)
5. Lee Westwood 16/1 (2nd SG: app)
6. Joost Luiten 18/1
7. Matt Wallace 18/1
8. Gavin Green 25/1
9. Tom Detry 25/1
10. Mike Lorenzo Vera 28/1
11. mailing list play

The course: International, Amsterdam, par 73, 6,966 yards

Key Features: Risk/ Reward strategic course with short par 5s and drivable par 4s. Mound surround. Large undulating, tiered and elevated greens with run offs, false fronts or deep bunkering, incorporating many pin positions. Doglegs both ways (maybe slight draw bias). Water Hazards in play.

Premium on approach play and distance control, controlled aggression on risk reward holes, lag putting on multi-tiered greens, par 5 scoring

Best bet: If we are talking the most likely player to win with a touch of value, Thomas Pieters 14/1 is him. 11th in birdies and 12th in strokes gained approach, backing Pieters on tracks with a lot of scoring opportunities has proven a +EV play at opening prices. 14s in a weak field is again (IMO) +EV here. Pieters has his confidence back after a win in the Czech Repubic and boasts 4 top 20s in his last 5. I expect him to make headway on the field with all these risk reward holes with his power

Course form and fit

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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