KLM Open Rankings, insights and best bet

KLM Open Top 10 vs the field rankings | Twitter:@Nicspicks
(Prices are estimated fair odds to 100%)

1. Thomas Pieters 10/1
2. Patrick Reed 10/1
3. Martin Kaymer 12/1 (1st in par 5 scoring, 10th in approach)
4. Sergio Garcia 12/1 (1st in SG:approach)
5. Lee Westwood 16/1 (2nd SG: app)
6. Joost Luiten 18/1
7. Matt Wallace 18/1
8. Gavin Green 25/1
9. Tom Detry 25/1
10. Mike Lorenzo Vera 28/1
11. mailing list play

The course: International, Amsterdam, par 73, 6,966 yards

Key Features: Risk/ Reward strategic course with short par 5s and drivable par 4s. Mound surround. Large undulating, tiered and elevated greens with run offs, false fronts or deep bunkering, incorporating many pin positions. Doglegs both ways (maybe slight draw bias). Water Hazards in play.

Premium on approach play and distance control, controlled aggression on risk reward holes, lag putting on multi-tiered greens, par 5 scoring

Best bet: If we are talking the most likely player to win with a touch of value, Thomas Pieters 14/1 is him. 11th in birdies and 12th in strokes gained approach, backing Pieters on tracks with a lot of scoring opportunities has proven a +EV play at opening prices. 14s in a weak field is again (IMO) +EV here. Pieters has his confidence back after a win in the Czech Repubic and boasts 4 top 20s in his last 5. I expect him to make headway on the field with all these risk reward holes with his power

Course form and fit

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Recent Big Winners: Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1
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