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Dunhill Links Specials bets

Only another 9 hours or so to tee off but i have a few outside guys I fancy for individual course first round leader markets, and also for potential sneaky top 20s. I think there could be an angle on a few guys who are teeing off day 1 in the ST. Andrews FRL market. First of all, given the 3 course rotation, tee times on each track will be closely grouped and it looks like all players will be battling stiff but not too overpowering winds at around 14/15mph.

Min Woo Lee is the main man to stick out for me at a big price and you can back him as high as 66/1 1/4 4 with coral/ladbrokes in the individual course FRL markets. If you refer to my outright Alfred Dunhill Links preview, you will see that he ranks 4th and 6th respectively in strokes gained around the green and SG: off the tee in my key metric rankings for ST. Andrews. This skill set is ideal for the home of golf and off the back of a t36 at the Porsche he could spring a surprise. You can back Min Woo in the top 20 market at 10.00 at time of writing

Big George Coetzee - 40s 1/5th 5 with Unibet or Boyles - in the ST. andrews FRL market, can be backed at 8.00 in the top 20 market on the exchange. Returning after injury problems, the Saffa has a t9 and t15 in his last 5 events and he held the joint record score at ST. Andrews (62) before Ross Fisher eclipsed him with a 61.

Gavin Green is also on the radar at 33/1 1/5th 5 with Unibet or Boyles. He's 6.40 the top 20. Quite simply ST. Andrews sets up perfectly for the Malaysian who seems to thrive on Thursdays.

Quite astonishlingly to me, renowned links lover Callum shinkwin - who leads the strokes gained off the tee category - and comes off the back of a near miss at the KLM Open last time out is available at 9.60 for a top 20 (at time of writing)

#FRLdar

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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