BMW PGA Championship Wentworth Tips and Key Info

Nicspicks' BMW PGA Championship tips: top 10 vs the field rankings
(estimated fair prices to 100% book)

1. Rory McIlroy 8/1
2. Paul Casey 12/1
3. John Rahm 12/1
4. Francesco Molinari 20/1
5. Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
6. Shane Lowry 25/1
7. Justin Rose 25/1
8. Henrik Stenson 28/1
9. Tony Finau 28/1
10. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1

The course - Wentworth, west course, par 72: 7,284 yards

European Ryder Cup qualification begins this week

Key features: Woodland track with big elevation changes, penal bunkering, elevated greens with run offs, swirling winds and dog-legs. Firmness of course is key and should play a little softer with new September slot.

Premium on: GREENS IN REGULATION (high approach flight an advantage and a prominent recent theme). Positioning from tee and shaping it both ways is vital. Good short game needed for inevitable misses. Look to the longer iron flushers to excel at Wentworth.

Course specialists: SHANE LOWRY, Lee Westwood, Francesco Molinari, Chris Wood

Correlation: none

He said: "Obviously Wentworth is one of my favourite courses. I have such fantastic memories there. I think it will have really benefitted from the change of date this year and the conditions might be some of the best we will have ever seen on the west course" - Paul Casey, no.2 in my Fantasy rankings

Home game: Paul Casey, Ernie Els, Ross Fisher

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(Progressive/trending/ course fit value odds plays)

Best bet: The opening lines on Open Champion Shane Lowry 33/1 were too big on a player who rates Wentworth as 1 of his favourite and most suitable courses. The big man performed admirable in his Fedex Cup, just missing out on East Lake, following his lengthy post Open session. Things have settled down now and he'll see the BMW Championship as a kind of calm after the storm home game. Lowry owns 4 top 10s (6 top 20s), including a runner up finish at Wentworth. Strong Fantasy Play.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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