Alfred Dunhill Links tips, rankings and Info

Alfred Dunhill Links top 10 vs field rankings
(est. fair odds to 100%)

Note: The Dunhill links often throws up outsider contenders due to pro-am format, draw bias and other variables

1. Rory McIlroy 7/1 Free £20 matched bet
2. Jon Rahm 7/1 Free £20 matched bet
3. Tommy Fleetwood 12/1
4. Justin Rose 12/1
5. Matt Wallace 16/1
6. Danny Willett 22/1
7. Shane Lowry 22/1
8. Rafa Cabrera Bello 25/1
9. Tony Finau 25/1
10. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1...

Alfred Dunhill Links offer for new customers: Free £20 matched golf bet at Betfair
(click link)

Courses: (pro am format, 3 track rotation, easy set up)

ST. Andrews, par 72, 7,318yds; Carnoustie par 72, 7,394yds; Kingsbarns: par 72, 7,227yds

Key features: 3 links courses. Carnoustie is the toughest of the three consisting of penal rough and bunkering. Kingsbarns is more generous off the tee and offers numerous low rounds in benign conditions. We have seen 60s hit from Peter Uihlein and Branden Grace here in recent years at Kingsbarns.

Host course, ST. Andrews - 36 holes for players who make cut. Can be brutal when wind blows but can play even easier than Kingsbarns in light winds. Wide open, undulating track incorporating short par 4 risk and reward holes. Massive undulating greens. Nasty pot bunkers.

Premium on: Controlling your ball flight in the wind. Good touch on and around the greens (strokes gained around the green). Strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) - at ST Andrews

Event specialists: Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrell Hatton 40.00

key Metric leaders

Strokes gained around the green
1 JPN TANIHARA, Hideto 56 +0.901
2 WAL DONALDSON, Jamie 34 +0.823
3 RSA BEZUIDENHOUT, Christiaan 74 +0.761
4 AUS LEE, Min Woo 38 +0.683
5 JPN MIYAZATO, Yusaku 56 +0.604
6 ESP CABRERA BELLO, Rafa 34 +0.599
7 IND JOSHI, Khalin H 22 +0.587
8 THA JAIDEE, Thongchai 48 +0.564
9 AUT SCHWAB, Matthias 76 +0.551
10 AUS ORMSBY, Wade 61 +0.546

Strokes gained off the tee
1 ENG SHINKWIN, Callum 47 +1.058
2 CHN LI, Haotong 32 +0.971
3 ESP ARNAUS, Adri 72 +0.965
4 RSA OOSTHUIZEN, Louis 24 +0.946
5 ESP GARCIA, Sergio 31 +0.905
6 AUS LEE, Min Woo 38 +0.764
7 FRA LANGASQUE, Romain 68 +0.740
8 FRA PEREZ, Victor 60 +0.720
9 ENG FLEETWOOD, Tommy 36 +0.705
10 NED LUITEN, Joost 52 +0.692

Selected course (event) history
Tommy Fleetwood: 2 25 15 13 2 5
Tyreel Hatton: 2 1 1 mc mc
Ross Fisher: 32 2 2 mc 61 mc 22
Bernd Wiesberger: 7 4 14 12
Martin Kaymer: mc 36 6 56 mc 7 34 30 1
Chris Wood: mc 4 9 7 15 mc

selected current form
Rory McIlroy: 9 2 1 19 6
John Rahm 2 13 5 3 7
Tony finau: 51 7 4 30
Andrew Johnston: 9 23 10
Matthias Schwab: 28 2 8 5
Rob MacIntyre: 28 2 mc mc 23 6

Min Woo Lee features in both key metric stats and may be worth keeping an eye on at a big price

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Alfred Dunhill Championship tips / best bets

Tommy Fleetwood ew 16/1 - 4 top 5s here and an average of ~ 10th in his last 6 Dunhill Links, Tommy was brought up playing links golf and holds or has held the course record at Carnoustie (63) and St. Andrews (62) (now 61 Ross Fisher). 9th in strokes gained off the tee.

Matt Wallace EW 30/1 is rounding back into form with a 3rd place at KLM including a 63 in round 3. Followed this up by taking the 1st round lead at Wentworth but fell away a bit. Looks a little too big pricewise for the multiple winner. Currently 17th in birdies and eats up shoot outs....

Betfair sportsbook are paying 1/5 8 places EW on the Dunhill Links (click link)

This week's Draftkings fantasy golf tournaments are up: $8 entry, 250k guaranteed contest - with 50k for first, and the 44$ 100k, 20k to 1st guaranteed inc

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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