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HashtagSeconditis - More seconds than a clock

Yes the disease is back, not the one that makes you include a #hashtag in every other sentence, but the dreaded "Seconditis". It's been a case of near misses this season in which only 2 outright winners have come in this far. What? Yeah that's kind of sh!t isn't it. Actually we haven't even had too many 2nds of late but we've been treading water and are now in the Drea.....I mean Red for the year....


In a strange kind of way, I'm loving this. The last big downswing was a couple of years ago now and that followed 1 of my biggest winning periods. As long as it lasted it only put around a 30% dent (max) in profits already amassed that year. This is different as we're currently running at a slight loss for the year after an unfortunate shortened Zurich Classic event. I got the new course wrong in China too (my bad), and The Masters is usually an annual loser.

I'm going to look at the positives though. For a start, it shows that my staking plan is working as efficiently as it was put into place to do. Only 2 winners this season - one of which was as short as 16s if I recall, yet the places (EW and top 10) still have us fluctuating around the break even point, which is the overall objective of the staking plan.

Also, a losing period makes me refocus and that's never a bad thing. Being in the game so long, I don't generally bat an eyelid at these winless streaks when betting such big odds but it can never hurt to double check for leaks that may have crept into my way of doing things. I like to concentrate more on my best plays and tone it down a bit during these times rather than trying to eek out every bit of value I perceive there to be. We have the Wells Fargo and a weak Trophee Hassan this week where I feel confident in my selections in terms of value - the thing that matters most.

Moving onto Draftking Daily Fantasty Golf or hashtag DFS and I still can't open my own account. From the 4 or 5 tournaments I've been involved in, I've already learned a lot re optimal strategy but I can only learn so much without my own account. It's clear it's tougher than I thought it may be and it hasn't been fruitful so far but it's equally clear that in time it could be a potential goldmine if patient. I'll be working on game selection and optimum strategy to reduce variance and find out what type of tournament suits my style best before I get involved full throttle. One big difference from betting is cuts made - so much is about the cut and consistency in DFS whereas in betting I expect a lot of mine to be hit or miss.

If you're playing DFS this week at the Wells Fargo, here is a list of players that the course suits and I'd want to choose from in my lineups: McIlroy $12,800; Matsuyama $9,300; Benny An $8,600, Daniel Berger $8,400; Thomas $8000, Chappell $7,900; Lowry $7,800; Patrick Rodgers $7,700; Kokrak $7,200; Glover $6,300; Schniederjans $6,400;

Quick mention of my latest trading exploits on which the next post will be about. Basically I'm in the middle of some more tweaks (can't help myself). ATM I've been breaking it up more into day 1 and day 2 separately as I've let some good positions go by letting the trades ride 36 holes. Also what I'm doing now gives me more scope to enter after round 1 play where there is a big edge targeting certain potential movers. The weather delays of late have upset things as well but I hope to have a positive post up towards the end of the month re trading profits.

Peace

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Nicspicks provides weekly golf betting tips and previews across the PGA Tour and European Tours. The golf betting tips and insights are free on site, with all tips available through the members mailing list early Tuesdays.

I will be implementing a new staking plan in 2020, targeting different areas of the markets to try and tackle the current evolution of the golf betting game, which has now become so competitive. Bookmaker place terms IMO are for the most part, outdated.

What you need:
We will be betting using odds on Betfair Sportsbook where possible, so have access to an account. Betfair offer each way 7 and even 8 places on most events throughout the year. Get Up to the £100 in free bets that are on offer when you sign up through this link

Backing to lay big outsiders and In-play trading will be a feature on Nicspicks throughout the season and a Betfair exchange account is essential to get involved. Click image below:


Bet now at betfair.com

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