HashtagSeconditis - More seconds than a clock

Yes the disease is back, not the one that makes you include a #hashtag in every other sentence, but the dreaded "Seconditis". It's been a case of near misses this season in which only 2 outright winners have come in this far. What? Yeah that's kind of sh!t isn't it. Actually we haven't even had too many 2nds of late but we've been treading water and are now in the Drea.....I mean Red for the year....

In a strange kind of way, I'm loving this. The last big downswing was a couple of years ago now and that followed 1 of my biggest winning periods. As long as it lasted it only put around a 30% dent (max) in profits already amassed that year. This is different as we're currently running at a slight loss for the year after an unfortunate shortened Zurich Classic event. I got the new course wrong in China too (my bad), and The Masters is usually an annual loser.

I'm going to look at the positives though. For a start, it shows that my staking plan is working as efficiently as it was put into place to do. Only 2 winners this season - one of which was as short as 16s if I recall, yet the places (EW and top 10) still have us fluctuating around the break even point, which is the overall objective of the staking plan.

Also, a losing period makes me refocus and that's never a bad thing. Being in the game so long, I don't generally bat an eyelid at these winless streaks when betting such big odds but it can never hurt to double check for leaks that may have crept into my way of doing things. I like to concentrate more on my best plays and tone it down a bit during these times rather than trying to eek out every bit of value I perceive there to be. We have the Wells Fargo and a weak Trophee Hassan this week where I feel confident in my selections in terms of value - the thing that matters most.

Moving onto Draftking Daily Fantasty Golf or hashtag DFS and I still can't open my own account. From the 4 or 5 tournaments I've been involved in, I've already learned a lot re optimal strategy but I can only learn so much without my own account. It's clear it's tougher than I thought it may be and it hasn't been fruitful so far but it's equally clear that in time it could be a potential goldmine if patient. I'll be working on game selection and optimum strategy to reduce variance and find out what type of tournament suits my style best before I get involved full throttle. One big difference from betting is cuts made - so much is about the cut and consistency in DFS whereas in betting I expect a lot of mine to be hit or miss.

If you're playing DFS this week at the Wells Fargo, here is a list of players that the course suits and I'd want to choose from in my lineups: McIlroy $12,800; Matsuyama $9,300; Benny An $8,600, Daniel Berger $8,400; Thomas $8000, Chappell $7,900; Lowry $7,800; Patrick Rodgers $7,700; Kokrak $7,200; Glover $6,300; Schniederjans $6,400;

Quick mention of my latest trading exploits on which the next post will be about. Basically I'm in the middle of some more tweaks (can't help myself). ATM I've been breaking it up more into day 1 and day 2 separately as I've let some good positions go by letting the trades ride 36 holes. Also what I'm doing now gives me more scope to enter after round 1 play where there is a big edge targeting certain potential movers. The weather delays of late have upset things as well but I hope to have a positive post up towards the end of the month re trading profits.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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