Scroll for course fit and progressive form models & info

Trading Diary: Near misses and the Twittersphere

So it's late and I can't sleep so I decided to update my blog. I've been playing a lot of late night poker and drinking too much with the EPTDublin poker tour in town. It's going quite well. I'm only playing cash games and there's non stop poker here now through to April. That was interesting eh?....


Back to the blog now and social media in particular. This year I've no time for silly people and most interaction is quite good. I'm not getting involved in too many debates on the Twitter as I don't care. I've also found a way to make people I don't particular get disappear like magic. This trick is quite nice. As I said, in the main, the 'funny guys' have gone away but not much is happening - the odd keyboard warrior here and there but that's it, despite a losing start to the year. To be fair I've never really had too much negativity which surprises me somewhat. I know I've inspired a fair amount of people to start blogging which is cool too.

One funny lad tried to big himself up by sarcastically calling me a Genius or something silly for telling my followers about a guy to watch on the Webcom tour. I guess he wanted a pat on the back for already 'knowing' about this guy that approximately 2% of my followers would have known about hence why I flagged them to keep an eye out. He obviously didn't stop to think about this? Genius indeed! Another few have been on my case about the man they call Gavin Green. His name is actually Gavin "Kyle" Green but I call him Gavin Green Jacket and hopefully we'll soon see why. I had the same sh!T with Jimmy Walker like 5 years ago when I was tipping / backing him at 18s for a top 10 - yes 18s for a top 10, and with the likes of Benny An. Even Henrik Norlander who probably isn't ever going to amount to anything great has surpassed my own expectations and he could indeed be an FRLdar money machine this next season or 2. I think he was 5th on the Webcom money list last year. #TheNorlander

Anyway back to my betting and trading exploits and I'm really trying to keep the social media etc professional this year and really push my previews on Unibet so if you could all please keep on retweeting my weekly previews if you appreciate the read, that would be great.

Unfortunately I have no AFTEERTIME (I especially love that word as a certain type of people hate it - usually the envious types (o)(o) - screenshots to show you as I've been losing absolutely all my side bets I think. I have a lot of side bets because I like side bets. As mentioned in the blog I usually allude to most of em on Twitter but can't mention them all. I'd love to show you a big fu*k you aftertime screenshot of Nicky Fung or Gavin Green Jacket taking down the FRLdar late Thursday in Malaysia (or early as the case may be - my geography ain't great and I'll probably be p!ssed playing poker in the RDS) but alas it probably won't happen, not least because I only have like 10 bills EW on both. I got restricted to 2.38 ew at 1 firm but I took it anyway for the craic and the restriction isn't because I'm a great bettor (I'm probably down there) so I'm not boasting. I can get on fine with most firms for less than 3 fig bets, I just can withdraw from certain ones, especially Bet365 - yes I must mention the name there as they treat me horribly. Like a robot and they hurt my feelings. Seriously though they are the worst I've personally dealt with on a professional basis but enough of that. I must say though that doesn't include the trading department as I know a few of their guys from Twitter and they are all cool.

I've become aware of the fact that I'm still talking, well typing out loud so to speak so if you've got this far, it's back to the main bets and yes we've got that 2nd syndrome again. First Lingmerth (still don't know how he lost that) then erm.........yes, Sullivan (reallty though we'd get a three way playoff there) and we've had some places ticking over with the likes of JB Holmes and Richard Stern. The blogs / members pciks are around 15pts down and I haven't updated for a while. Will do so soon but as it says on the spreadsheet, there's not much point till after at least 100 picks.

Regards to the trading, I'm still fine tuning, I'm losing a small amount on most tournaments so far with a couple of decent wins but down overall. The plan as I've mentioned before is to try and lessen the variance. Unfortuntely most of the tournaments have been crap for trading so far with course rotation policies in and pro-ams etc and then short price faves all running good so I'm hoping this will turn around over the next couple of months.

On a side note, I've met some nice people from the twitter world in real life recently - yes they do actually exist in reality!! One of the lads even got a huge golf double up himself a few weeks back! - You all know who you are!! Nice ta meet ya!

Will talk a bit about Daily fantasy sports next time - Until the next one

Peace

PS, if there are spelling errors slash typos in the blog post, I don't care, it's late

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.