Trading Diary - amatuer hour

Yes, I spelled that wrong - purposely, to make a point. I'm so sharp like that.

Marcus Fraser has just taken down the Malaysian Open after another collapse by a leading golfer. I won't profess to having entertained the notion of backing Fraser - he simply had no form. I did have to check when I scrolled down the odds and saw a big three figs, given he seemingly fit the profile of a course where there was a lot of guesswork involved but after reading his latest form figs I moved swiftly on, perhaps stupidly. Usually I look for something like a MC involving an 80-68 or something positive but there was nothing I knew of. Feel free to abuse....

More mistakes were made this week with the in play trading. I put up Bubba and DJ as my main #backtolays but as mentioned on Twitter I made the trip back to the land of novice punter, closing my position at the end of day 1 play. Basically I've been feeling the pinch a bit so far this season and have lost a bit of confidence and went against rule no.1 - never deviate from a set strategy. Granted, I did say I'm still trying to tweak to perfection but this was a mistake. If I'd waited the 36 like I was supposed to, I'd have gotten out with a 300% profit rather than a 150% green on the book.

For example, on the other side of the pond I had backed my main fancies and a few other guys at silly odds like KT Kim and Alex Levy - I was raging When chong liang pulled out (see what I did there?). I could have closed for 60% profit after round 1 but left it. Gladly I managed to get out for a 20% loss after the 36 before Thongchai withdrew with fever but I was hoping for a big position with Levy and KT Kim, along with Thongchai out early on day 2, if I recall correctly - at least 2 of them were. Horribly, KT Kim dropped 4 shots in his last 2 holes and I had no position on him anymore. Levy did a Levy. I really think Thongchai would have pushed the winning total of -15 very hard being -7 after 36. He had to withdraw with sickness so I can't have anything bad to say about the guy but I can hate my life.

Another point to notice re trading the golf is something that always happens - Bubba started trading the event circa 29.00 while DJ was averaging 18.5. The two were on the same score after 36 holes and were pretty much exactly the same price. What I'm getting at is that #backtolays have less equity the further up the market you go. If you are planning on trading the early rounds, for me, the best players to target are those trading around 34.00 to approx 70.00 / maybe a slight drift to 80.00 in run of the mill events. Guys bigger than that will still be huge after a good round 1 so you can always get on them in play. If you really like them and they are out early on day 1, there's always the FRL market EW on the 3-figs guys. Also, you must be always aware in events with a short priced Rory or Jordan etc. that they will dramatically effect the odds of the others. They will be so underpriced if within a sniff of the lead and your 'brilliant' pick may be 2nd but still trading at SP if a big player goes 4 shots ahead after 36. For example - this happened late last season - I think with Kevin Na in a playoff event IIRC. I can't be arsed checking.

Anyway - The moral of the story is never deviate from preset strategies or you're a fish - a token mug if it were and I've been a bit of a silly sausage this year at times so far. As I said in the last blog update, there is a run of great events coming up and we still have Bubba and DJ EW for the blog tonight at the Northern Trust. The leaderboard is a who's who of bombers and ball strikers again as it usually is at Riviera, despite some 'aficionados' claiming or guessing otherwise.

If you caught it on Twitter, maybe Toby Tree (125/1) can shoot another low one right now(ish) at the Dimension Data and grab a place but I won't hold my breath.

EDIT: lost 2 followers for a few tweets on Fraser and the Malaysian Open (with a side of Riviera) this morning. F*cking Twitter eh? The fakest thing since Fakebook.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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