Trading Diary - Week 1

A new feature I hope will be pretty regular on the blog this year is an in play trading diary with summary and notes on my own personal trading exploits and some fixed odds activity. I'm going to start this week with what I've been doing in the early rounds at the SA Open. Predictably it's not been a great start......

SA Open

Here I managed to catch a half decent exchange price on Lee slattery while Gregory Bourdy drifted to 38.00 on the Wednesday so I went in there. It was a toss up between JB Kruger and Hennie Otto and if I'd gone for the former I'd be out now for profit. Instead I opted for Otto. Kruger was matched for 4 figs at 70.00 and has traded already at 10.00 and lower.

I took my stake back on Bourdy after R1 and put it on Keith Horne who had an early tee time and I got average odds of 47.00 which were very generous. As long as Van Zyl and / or Grace don't go mad on their back 9, I will get out around break even for the tournament (trading wise)

I had a decent top 10 bet on Van Den Berg at an overpriced 14s that's not looking good. I also had a late top 20 bet on Tjaart Van Der Walt at 10/1. Hit or miss but i thought these odds were huge so I actually availed of a free matched bet deposit for this. He's currently +1 after 36 holes but not totally out of the top 20 running.

Hyundai Tournament Of Champions

I got in from my regular Poker game around midnight on Thursday to see that by big "speccy bet" Padraig Harrington was coming up trumps. As mentioned in my preview I just thought he was a perfect fit for Kapalua and he was actually leading on -4 when I turned on the live pictures. He didn't produce the big finish that Spieth or Reed did unfortunately so it was a narrow miss on the 80s first round leader (EW). I have a top 10 bet there and decent green on the exchanges and at -3 he's still in it.

As far as the main bets go for trading purposes I've recouped most of my liability on Thomas and Walker who both could have been better themselves. Walker bogeyed the par 5 18th while Thomas missed a tiddler for birdie and both also sit at -3. With Spieth and Reed at -7 and -8 respectively, I'v traded out.

I've come back in the market in round 2 with average prices of 25.00 on Holmes, Snedeker and Danny Lee - all big prices due to the guys at the top. In reality though, with all 3 sitting on -6, we should have a free bet here if trading after 36. Unless Spieth or Reed go mad, I just need 1 of the 3 to hit a decent round to be safe. Any better and I'll be looking at profit on that play - albeit probably only profit that gets me out of the week 1 hole.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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