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Trading Diary - Jason "Houdini" serves up the Mirth #Dufnering

Well, how David Lingmerth did not win the Career Builders Championship I'll never know but I'm not as upset as I usually am after such near misses. Why? Well I suppose it's my newer, lesser variance, bulk of staking plan going on the top 10 market, strategy. Or perhaps it's because I can waffle on here. Wins are nice but it's the places that I'm focused on and it's actually Martin Piller I'm more upset about this week....


Before I get onto him, Lingmerth traded for over 10k at 1.25 and lower so hopefully some of you did the business there. I didn't. As I've been banging on about for a while now in my trading diary I'm onto a strat that takes cares of business in the earlier rounds. I add the top 10 market in FO of course though.

Here's the thing - it has it's upsides and downsides. Basically I ended up laying David at astronomically higher odds than he traded at (1.20 low) to cut my losses. This will be the way for me this year - no deviating - and if it doesn't produce a worthwhile ROI I'm done trading. On the other side of the coinage, it worked in my favour in Abu Dhabi Championship where I laid Sulli at around 5.0 and produced around a 200% profit trading that tourney. He capitulated after looking like stealing the show then. Golf is mad - as Jason "Houdini" Dufner showed us on 17 and 18.

PS, longterm, the ROI% shouldn't differ too much in trading earlier or later, or backing E/W top 10 fixed odds etc so don't worry if my trading diary seems like gibberish to you - just stick to the advised bets and let them run because they are meticulously ( I had to spellcheck that) researched, and optimised with my staking system to exploit value and lessen variance. OK there's still some work to be done there - I'm no genius. Sometimes (a lot) I even confuse myself. My grand plan (which I've been trying to perfect for around 4 years now!) is to bring me in a regular, steadier but lower (Boo) weekl(e)y income rather than weeks of blanks followed by a big, say monthly, score. The jury is still out.

I can safely say a large % of my followers do an awful lot better than me on our winning weeks. In fact some of the blog readers are making a living. Bast@rds. Just kidding, you're not B@stards - exploit me all you want, beating the odds is what gives me my drive and the more that benefit, the better! It's like a big dollop of dopamine with a side of serotonin when what I see as a big pricing misjudgement comes in for me (fuc* you Martin Piller!) or when I hit that positve ROI% at the year's end... If I ever feel my "edge" is gone, I'll stop. SIMPLE. And the best thing is I'll know if and when that is the case due to what's known as risk intelligence. Please don't take that as a boast, it's just a fact. Analytical mind meets Obsession meets strong numerical ability = risk intelligence and unhappy social life.

Anyway back to Piller and I must pat myself on the back here *pats back* as I was extremely pleased with spotting him at 400/500 for the tournament and getting on at 28s for a top 20. I said last week he ranged from 5s to 28s across the books in the top 20 markets. OK, I confess, I didn't really "spot him", I actually had him on the radar for this event since before Xmas. Anyway he only went and did it again. Bogey free all day and then stuck in the proverbial orange block on the scorecard on his 72nd hole to fall short of the top 20 by the solitary stroke. OK the stake would have been halved but it would have been a nice one to put in the archives.

Onwards amigos - a winner is coming soon. I think the punters are definitely 1-up on the bookmakers so far.

PS, I have a new pic on my Twitter where I'm a year uglier

#Dufnering

Slainte

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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